{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d9dbb59-a479-4c5d-ad20-c41585abd24b", "symbol": "002264", "name": "New Huadu Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.709, "architecture_energy": 39.54, "architecture_maturity": 93.622, "architecture_confidence": 87.274, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.16, "rotation_up": 27.87, "upward_expansion": 20.02, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 31.95, "downward_expansion": 65.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.310667, 6.166182, 6.540404, 7.118383 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.56, "trend_reference": 8.027177, "distance_from_trend": -0.182776, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.380339, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.788484, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.372849, "excess_performance": -0.380249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182776, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028158, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.319599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085059, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.372849, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.599428, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99472022, "relative_activity": 1.492272, "balance": 0.599428, "dry_up": 1.436719, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083163, "annualized_volatility": 0.46373, "from_high_reference": -0.478537, "from_low_reference": 0.16726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.027177, "fair_value_reference": 6.380339, "structural_low": 5.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.01834, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.046445, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.369898, "worst_return": -0.154097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.133466, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.110847, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.253704, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045158, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.072491, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.165, "worst_return": -0.174632, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"fair_value": 6.372971, "relative_strength": -25.862759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.964119, "energy": 63.345609, "activity_lines": [ 5.942667, 6.033311, 6.651073, 7.325631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.54, "volume": 103204841, "typical_volume": 65792592.8, "trend": 8.102844, "fair_value": 6.377349, "relative_strength": -16.189898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.308718, "energy": 51.352254, "activity_lines": [ 6.154, 6.093976, 6.589001, 7.217921 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.56, "volume": 99472022, "typical_volume": 66658081.8, "trend": 8.027177, "fair_value": 6.380339, "relative_strength": -19.788484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.709057, "energy": 39.539985, "activity_lines": [ 6.310667, 6.166182, 6.540404, 7.118383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }