{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8da021b1-2dca-4e2f-8dde-dba2be5de99f", "symbol": "MLWEY", "name": "Weya SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.542, "architecture_energy": 40.509, "architecture_maturity": 47.044, "architecture_confidence": 85.518, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.5, "rotation_up": 25.53, "upward_expansion": 10.09, "deceleration": 55.76, "rotation_down": 44.77, "downward_expansion": 72.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.021433, 0.021745, 0.024593, 0.026474 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.019, "trend_reference": 0.02845, "distance_from_trend": -0.332162, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.02218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143362, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.633276, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.449275, "excess_performance": -0.502587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.332162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008711, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.143362, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314157, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.449275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.386238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 0.058068, "balance": 0.386238, "dry_up": 0.210061, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.259109, "annualized_volatility": 1.314728, "from_high_reference": -0.675214, "from_low_reference": 1.375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.02845, "fair_value_reference": 0.02218, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.1875, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.142415, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": 0.1875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1875, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 0.016935, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.0235, "volume": 22740, "typical_volume": 48252.9, "trend": 0.028967, "fair_value": 0.022199, "relative_strength": -4.348944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.811983, "energy": 62.116385, "activity_lines": [ 0.021367, 0.022882, 0.02589, 0.027477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0235, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 38293.9, "trend": 0.029083, "fair_value": 0.022213, "relative_strength": -6.569541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.238536, "energy": 40.181759, "activity_lines": [ 0.022133, 0.022609, 0.025421, 0.027125 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.019, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 34442.3, "trend": 0.02845, "fair_value": 0.02218, "relative_strength": -26.633276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.542256, "energy": 40.508501, "activity_lines": [ 0.021433, 0.021745, 0.024593, 0.026474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }