{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8da7e627-e2c8-4178-8e5f-bf7c3a394b91", "symbol": "300758", "name": "Anshan Hifichem Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.393, "architecture_energy": 74.08, "architecture_maturity": 32.093, "architecture_confidence": 83.899, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 11.8, "upward_expansion": 16.76, "deceleration": 38.5, "rotation_down": 73.75, "downward_expansion": 92.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.308, 10.857455, 11.867629, 12.662606 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.39, "trend_reference": 13.825574, "distance_from_trend": -0.176164, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.348407, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.473149, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.36934, "excess_performance": -0.37674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176164, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077614, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204731, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.36934, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.239476, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52059980, "relative_activity": 0.82017, "balance": 1.239476, "dry_up": 0.644397, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126192, "annualized_volatility": 0.516396, "from_high_reference": -0.47007, "from_low_reference": 0.289921 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.825574, "fair_value_reference": 12.348407, "structural_low": 8.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.026343, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.002655, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.363405, "worst_return": -0.204184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040016, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.102603, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.219061, "worst_return": -0.150523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.091083, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.052096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.445235, "worst_return": -0.184474, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 11.06, "volume": 41587960, "typical_volume": 71757905.15, "trend": 14.155621, "fair_value": 12.341163, "relative_strength": -29.910344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.468129, "energy": 56.857077, "activity_lines": [ 11.976, 12.397786, 13.04097, 13.683926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.8, "volume": 35906360, "typical_volume": 68746255.6, "trend": 14.073647, "fair_value": 12.340943, "relative_strength": -30.962102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.226269, "energy": 74.482537, "activity_lines": [ 11.176, 11.837502, 12.674774, 13.402918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.15, "volume": 39509619, "typical_volume": 66135895.1, "trend": 13.964368, "fair_value": 12.337063, "relative_strength": -35.000663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.843041, "energy": 87.65903, "activity_lines": [ 10.324667, 11.236495, 12.282218, 13.085263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.89, "volume": 36135378, "typical_volume": 63875666.7, "trend": 13.86682, "fair_value": 12.33742, "relative_strength": -27.932951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.654319, "energy": 85.787653, "activity_lines": [ 9.973333, 10.867091, 11.991149, 12.822401 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.39, "volume": 52059980, "typical_volume": 63474602.05, "trend": 13.825574, "fair_value": 12.348407, "relative_strength": -20.473149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.39338, "energy": 74.080235, "activity_lines": [ 10.308, 10.857455, 11.867629, 12.662606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }