{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8daa6b64-b11b-4796-a32c-d4c8047a6fac", "symbol": "ARN", "name": "Alerion Clean Power S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 66.559, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.56, "architecture_energy": 46.408, "architecture_maturity": 6.13, "architecture_confidence": 74.923, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.52, "rotation_up": 15.84, "upward_expansion": 24.75, "deceleration": 51.21, "rotation_down": 64.74, "downward_expansion": 54.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.559334, 21.070728, 22.410226, 22.107589 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.700001, "trend_reference": 21.266081, "distance_from_trend": -0.026619, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.513319, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.363839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146829, "excess_performance": -0.024063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026619, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059235, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.118114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258283, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113638, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323983, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146829, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572942, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50572, "relative_activity": 0.48152, "balance": 0.572942, "dry_up": 0.589436, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086473, "annualized_volatility": 0.478936, "from_high_reference": -0.295918, "from_low_reference": 0.222313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.266081, "fair_value_reference": 18.513319, "structural_low": 17.032889, "invalidation": "A 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"fair_value": 18.637321, "relative_strength": -9.556421, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.848699, "energy": 19.787956, "activity_lines": [ 21.666667, 22.771818, 23.169495, 22.229297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.1, "volume": 54936, "typical_volume": 108903.4, "trend": 21.039126, "fair_value": 18.599318, "relative_strength": -7.350747, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.978892, "energy": 22.381599, "activity_lines": [ 21.403333, 22.280909, 23.044767, 22.240794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.75, "volume": 56837, "typical_volume": 108421.35, "trend": 21.140867, "fair_value": 18.567225, "relative_strength": -8.393654, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.94308, "energy": 39.782207, "activity_lines": [ 21.106667, 21.813636, 22.87423, 22.22214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.860001, "volume": 85279, "typical_volume": 105197.0, "trend": 21.194689, "fair_value": 18.536124, "relative_strength": -12.61795, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.415082, "energy": 55.313845, "activity_lines": [ 20.65, 21.317273, 22.606724, 22.139504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 50572, "typical_volume": 105025.75, "trend": 21.266081, "fair_value": 18.513319, "relative_strength": -11.363839, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.560292, "energy": 46.408382, "activity_lines": [ 20.559334, 21.070728, 22.410226, 22.107589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }