{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8dacaa4c-acfa-4226-b6a0-5fca303e6c77", "symbol": "XUSI", "name": "Usinas Sider\u00fargicas de Minas Gerais S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.833, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -17.971, "architecture_energy": 26.605, "architecture_maturity": 57.572, "architecture_confidence": 78.838, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.0, "rotation_up": 14.17, "upward_expansion": 43.49, "deceleration": 87.03, "rotation_down": 42.41, "downward_expansion": 32.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.399333, 1.447455, 1.503476, 1.432763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.27, "trend_reference": 1.322333, "distance_from_trend": -0.039577, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.107042, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147201, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.071034, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.257426, "excess_performance": 0.132995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184886, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147201, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286547, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00071, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.55914, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.257426, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 13.679321, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 0.013429, "balance": 13.679321, "dry_up": 0.266274, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089643, "annualized_volatility": 0.560048, "from_high_reference": -0.335079, "from_low_reference": 0.984375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.322333, "fair_value_reference": 1.107042, "structural_low": 0.985, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.045113, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.037725, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.239069, "worst_return": -0.164384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030075, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.02344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.389911, "worst_return": -0.183578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.054828, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.105996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.311676, "worst_return": -0.380812, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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31.323627, "activity_lines": [ 1.544667, 1.619091, 1.501167, 1.387484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.44, "volume": 14085, "typical_volume": 75563.7, "trend": 1.259667, "fair_value": 1.100364, "relative_strength": 22.025761, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.486833, "energy": 40.47793, "activity_lines": [ 1.479333, 1.586727, 1.507238, 1.400247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.42, "volume": 45562, "typical_volume": 74444.75, "trend": 1.276667, "fair_value": 1.102109, "relative_strength": 20.258225, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.672246, "energy": 36.919117, "activity_lines": [ 1.438667, 1.549818, 1.509238, 1.410591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.48, "volume": 32749, "typical_volume": 75181.4, "trend": 1.295667, "fair_value": 1.104021, "relative_strength": 21.920329, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.512888, "energy": 30.529185, "activity_lines": [ 1.446, 1.526, 1.515762, 1.42371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.48, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 75073.4, "trend": 1.314, "fair_value": 1.10615, "relative_strength": 19.634123, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.162269, "energy": 21.057312, "activity_lines": [ 1.458667, 1.503636, 1.520571, 1.435602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.27, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 74463.6, "trend": 1.322333, "fair_value": 1.107042, "relative_strength": 0.071034, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -17.970594, "energy": 26.605325, "activity_lines": [ 1.399333, 1.447455, 1.503476, 1.432763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }