{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8db2bf1c-cbf8-4357-bb6e-49a82f846573", "symbol": "FSX", "name": "Finansia X Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.304, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.041, "architecture_energy": 4.544, "architecture_maturity": 32.825, "architecture_confidence": 49.591, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.44, "rotation_up": 31.36, "upward_expansion": 38.29, "deceleration": 65.16, "rotation_down": 24.07, "downward_expansion": 39.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.130667, 1.131636, 1.145238, 1.152753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.12, "trend_reference": 1.113333, "distance_from_trend": 0.005988, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.816385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.383391, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.921337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.555556, "excess_performance": 0.363231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136441, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.383391, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136107, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.555556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.528313, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 182500, "relative_activity": 0.706515, "balance": 1.528313, "dry_up": 1.76174, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096154, "annualized_volatility": 0.890054, "from_high_reference": -0.304348, "from_low_reference": 0.69697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.113333, "fair_value_reference": 1.816385, "structural_low": 0.71, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.034188, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027651, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.046296, "worst_return": -0.044248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.017094, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105238, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.017094, "worst_return": -0.017094, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.24, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089552, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042735, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 3.06, "volume": 9832800, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 3.0, "volume": 18513100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 3.1, "volume": 32594600, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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"stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.311676, "energy": 10.913674, "activity_lines": [ 1.143333, 1.140364, 1.168048, 1.140559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.1, "volume": 345000, "typical_volume": 568295.0, "trend": 1.069667, "fair_value": 1.829866, "relative_strength": -11.298594, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.407823, "energy": 7.858781, "activity_lines": [ 1.134, 1.130909, 1.159048, 1.14329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.13, "volume": 1165800, "typical_volume": 556440.0, "trend": 1.084333, "fair_value": 1.825292, "relative_strength": -8.327565, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.825544, "energy": 12.164548, "activity_lines": [ 1.134667, 1.130364, 1.15381, 1.147183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.15, "volume": 127000, "typical_volume": 274055.0, "trend": 1.099333, "fair_value": 1.820907, "relative_strength": -4.773892, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.687001, "energy": 6.890526, "activity_lines": [ 1.14, 1.133636, 1.150619, 1.151419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.12, "volume": 182500, "typical_volume": 258310.0, "trend": 1.113333, "fair_value": 1.816385, "relative_strength": -5.921337, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.041065, "energy": 4.54427, "activity_lines": [ 1.130667, 1.131636, 1.145238, 1.152753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }