{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8db4d03d-cb9a-4884-a067-0b10eb04b8db", "symbol": "MP1", "name": "Megaport Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.512, "architecture_energy": 44.586, "architecture_maturity": 75.686, "architecture_confidence": 92.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.46, "rotation_up": 39.57, "upward_expansion": 67.03, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.36, "downward_expansion": 19.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.016666, 19.210909, 17.130856, 15.059741 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.18, "trend_reference": 13.006699, "distance_from_trend": 0.551508, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.806801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.709184, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 41.692364, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.959223, "excess_performance": 0.895518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.551508, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185585, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.709184, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.811701, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.416924, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.629758, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.959223, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.771749, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7033576, "relative_activity": 0.987112, "balance": 2.771749, "dry_up": 1.152676, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126615, "annualized_volatility": 0.722341, "from_high_reference": -0.046314, "from_low_reference": 2.153125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.006699, "fair_value_reference": 11.806801, "structural_low": 6.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.050858, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.074761, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.173869, "worst_return": -0.278017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.195332, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.202943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.296482, "worst_return": -0.255388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.50433, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.464996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.824087, "worst_return": -0.717134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.343723, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.508735, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.667118, "worst_return": -0.660022, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.255132, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055164, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.257919, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153278, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.162814, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.274829, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056629, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034985, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.199675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.625776, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106614, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.01, "volume": 4612500, "typical_volume": 7850659.65, "trend": 6.672333, "fair_value": 11.527051, "relative_strength": 62.908936, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.31457, 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"fair_value": 11.589622, "relative_strength": 51.234983, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.122867, "energy": 68.550131, "activity_lines": [ 19.913334, 18.592435, 14.997637, 13.436567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.23, "volume": 6972751, "typical_volume": 6876178.8, "trend": 12.355366, "fair_value": 11.643211, "relative_strength": 36.745944, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.5192, "energy": 64.384784, "activity_lines": [ 19.366667, 18.841326, 15.552156, 13.827704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.469999, "volume": 7846417, "typical_volume": 6878814.65, "trend": 12.552699, "fair_value": 11.69366, "relative_strength": 38.199491, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.778276, "energy": 54.840373, "activity_lines": [ 18.943333, 18.981672, 16.08458, 14.222197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.1, "volume": 11000430, "typical_volume": 7106320.25, "trend": 12.745366, "fair_value": 11.743724, "relative_strength": 31.877769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.498709, "energy": 45.109293, "activity_lines": [ 18.561333, 18.953109, 16.533527, 14.580087 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.18, "volume": 7033576, "typical_volume": 7125411.1, "trend": 13.006699, "fair_value": 11.806801, "relative_strength": 41.692364, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.512456, "energy": 44.585838, "activity_lines": [ 19.016666, 19.210909, 17.130856, 15.059741 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }