{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8db5f5d8-7e07-4d37-8e3a-8678149e133e", "symbol": "DIA", "name": "State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.063, "architecture_energy": 76.977, "architecture_maturity": 52.894, "architecture_confidence": 78.475, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.12, "rotation_up": 72.34, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 59.25, "rotation_down": 25.56, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 461.331337, 457.681287, 446.626649, 437.611392 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 466.75, "trend_reference": 427.819754, "distance_from_trend": 0.090997, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 376.45247, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239864, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.227827, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.145868, "excess_performance": 0.029206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090997, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036953, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239864, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082582, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002278, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006749, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145868, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 227.5, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48, "relative_activity": 1.702128, "balance": 227.5, "dry_up": 0.443262, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010193, "annualized_volatility": 0.094097, "from_high_reference": -0.013526, "from_low_reference": 0.241418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 427.819754, "fair_value_reference": 376.45247, "structural_low": 396.208893, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.010006, "positive_rate": 0.568182, "directional_follow_through": 0.568182, "median_excess_return": 1.1e-05, "regime_survival": 0.795455, "best_return": 0.05885, "worst_return": -0.084103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.010958, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.00661, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.141218, "worst_return": -0.091464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.037653, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.004915, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.166703, "worst_return": -0.110133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 82.522134, "energy": 92.219212, "activity_lines": [ 455.834353, 450.215623, 437.571262, 430.522563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 458.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 85.45, "trend": 424.622728, "fair_value": 374.45002, "relative_strength": 0.347496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.662054, "energy": 91.596327, "activity_lines": [ 457.375144, 452.859855, 440.531312, 432.812506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 458.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 83.3, "trend": 426.244543, "fair_value": 375.417644, "relative_strength": -0.451434, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.402888, "energy": 89.937758, "activity_lines": [ 458.290806, 454.808519, 443.299179, 434.998137 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 466.75, "volume": 48, "typical_volume": 28.2, "trend": 427.819754, "fair_value": 376.45247, "relative_strength": 0.227827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.062569, "energy": 76.976514, "activity_lines": [ 461.331337, 457.681287, 446.626649, 437.611392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }