{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8db6651d-2734-44f3-b69d-c29e4134370c", "symbol": "AUTLANB", "name": "Compa\u00f1\u00eda Minera Autl\u00e1n, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 61.35, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.681, "architecture_energy": 10.954, "architecture_maturity": 43.055, "architecture_confidence": 64.163, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.56, "rotation_up": 32.69, "upward_expansion": 54.18, "deceleration": 77.3, "rotation_down": 24.99, "downward_expansion": 20.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.473333, 7.484182, 7.484143, 7.461183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.45, "trend_reference": 7.444333, "distance_from_trend": 0.000761, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.064359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076182, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.136417, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.006667, "excess_performance": 0.048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000761, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076182, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023461, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022264, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.845281, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1549119, "relative_activity": 5.914431, "balance": 1.845281, "dry_up": 1.696091, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032628, "annualized_volatility": 0.193292, "from_high_reference": -0.090354, "from_low_reference": 0.11194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.444333, "fair_value_reference": 8.064359, "structural_low": 7.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.003047, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.016087, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.073333, "worst_return": -0.140827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.026388, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.043631, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.098726, "worst_return": -0.23125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007979, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062665, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.152866, "worst_return": -0.253867, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089172, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098958, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052381, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075377, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176978, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050139, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11465, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.049716, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064286, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.86, "volume": 146626, "typical_volume": 265122.5, "trend": 13.837202, "fair_value": 12.43776, "relative_strength": -26.054945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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7.482667, 7.49, 7.45781, 7.448839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.68, "volume": 27042, "typical_volume": 272371.3, "trend": 7.457333, "fair_value": 8.161474, "relative_strength": 1.836501, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.475775, "energy": 33.838602, "activity_lines": [ 7.558, 7.521273, 7.48219, 7.463849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.47, "volume": 25953, "typical_volume": 223266.7, "trend": 7.451667, "fair_value": 8.127372, "relative_strength": -0.411396, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.317451, "energy": 30.883359, "activity_lines": [ 7.541333, 7.514545, 7.48619, 7.464667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.4, "volume": 174860, "typical_volume": 194678.05, "trend": 7.452333, "fair_value": 8.093462, "relative_strength": -1.940886, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.759527, "energy": 15.824104, "activity_lines": [ 7.498667, 7.493818, 7.48281, 7.461333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.45, "volume": 1549119, "typical_volume": 261921.9, "trend": 7.444333, "fair_value": 8.064359, "relative_strength": -1.136417, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.681124, "energy": 10.954434, "activity_lines": [ 7.473333, 7.484182, 7.484143, 7.461183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }