{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8db9b187-feb3-42c4-97ee-5252b829d231", "symbol": "IEL", "name": "IDP Education Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.539, "architecture_energy": 54.076, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.204, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.04, "rotation_up": 29.57, "upward_expansion": 10.0, "deceleration": 60.38, "rotation_down": 43.3, "downward_expansion": 78.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.222667, 2.232273, 2.42669, 2.838425 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.25, "trend_reference": 3.531488, "distance_from_trend": -0.362875, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.032898, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.796064, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.717316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.58269, "excess_performance": -0.646395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.362875, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22297, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.796064, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018884, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.507173, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.58269, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.431996, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8676497, "relative_activity": 0.747764, "balance": 0.431996, "dry_up": 0.794521, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149231, "annualized_volatility": 0.61261, "from_high_reference": -0.663549, "from_low_reference": 0.12782 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.531488, "fair_value_reference": 11.032898, "structural_low": 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"activity_lines": [ 2.285333, 2.301545, 2.733724, 3.256303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.2, "volume": 12347505, "typical_volume": 11532191.55, "trend": 3.882758, "fair_value": 11.431934, "relative_strength": -50.356809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.725074, "energy": 62.530312, "activity_lines": [ 2.258, 2.267091, 2.639762, 3.139998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.05, "volume": 8243154, "typical_volume": 11504444.8, "trend": 3.757468, "fair_value": 11.2951, "relative_strength": -53.280494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.091206, "energy": 63.573356, "activity_lines": [ 2.176, 2.216818, 2.543071, 3.021756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.31, "volume": 7608997, "typical_volume": 11465987.25, "trend": 3.644154, "fair_value": 11.16267, "relative_strength": -48.250461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.527848, "energy": 57.093916, "activity_lines": [ 2.214667, 2.226727, 2.483476, 2.928371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.25, "volume": 8676497, "typical_volume": 11603258.8, "trend": 3.531488, "fair_value": 11.032898, "relative_strength": -50.717316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.53944, "energy": 54.075888, "activity_lines": [ 2.222667, 2.232273, 2.42669, 2.838425 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }