{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8dbc0ef7-40be-408c-8c83-cf66387f3df1", "symbol": "ALUM", "name": "WisdomTree Aluminium", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.424, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.892, "architecture_energy": 27.117, "architecture_maturity": 18.153, "architecture_confidence": 76.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.43, "rotation_up": 20.75, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 69.05, "rotation_down": 51.26, "downward_expansion": 37.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.7433, 3.753782, 3.865993, 3.857895 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.8075, "trend_reference": 3.79795, "distance_from_trend": 0.002515, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.137843, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.937736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114445, "excess_performance": -0.056447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002515, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049723, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213413, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069377, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114445, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.6517, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112035, "relative_activity": 0.464644, "balance": 5.6517, "dry_up": 0.355737, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034264, "annualized_volatility": 0.236823, "from_high_reference": -0.105801, "from_low_reference": 0.327349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.79795, "fair_value_reference": 3.137843, "structural_low": 3.3225, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007299, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006438, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.070381, "worst_return": -0.090922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013345, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.06213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155432, "worst_return": -0.106545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.100044, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.018149, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208542, "worst_return": -0.066291, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.170224, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.419441, "worst_return": -0.194933, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028942, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047292, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001073, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045867, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.159401, "active": false 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"relative_strength": -8.190686, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.074065, "energy": 42.969948, "activity_lines": [ 3.737067, 3.885145, 3.934776, 3.866431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.692, "volume": 33723, "typical_volume": 369769.5, "trend": 3.761433, "fair_value": 3.117429, "relative_strength": -6.587222, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.314145, "energy": 57.21964, "activity_lines": [ 3.696733, 3.835391, 3.913898, 3.862817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.7255, "volume": 119696, "typical_volume": 342442.65, "trend": 3.776733, "fair_value": 3.123981, "relative_strength": -5.594602, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.527592, "energy": 61.748587, "activity_lines": [ 3.6931, 3.7965, 3.8952, 3.860499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.7175, "volume": 77647, "typical_volume": 308434.65, "trend": 3.788633, "fair_value": 3.130452, "relative_strength": -6.434716, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.100646, "energy": 53.718879, "activity_lines": [ 3.702667, 3.762609, 3.875757, 3.856677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.8075, "volume": 112035, "typical_volume": 241120.05, "trend": 3.79795, "fair_value": 3.137843, "relative_strength": -6.937736, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.892221, "energy": 27.116572, "activity_lines": [ 3.7433, 3.753782, 3.865993, 3.857895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }