{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8dc3f9d1-c988-4ea5-9bdc-1ef2869831b1", "symbol": "8096", "name": "CoAsia Electronics Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.294, "architecture_energy": 20.525, "architecture_maturity": 69.496, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.96, "rotation_up": 20.64, "upward_expansion": 54.54, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 38.57, "downward_expansion": 22.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 123.666667, 133.472727, 129.228095, 118.831613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 116.5, "trend_reference": 102.988333, "distance_from_trend": 0.131196, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.158855, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.322621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.377585, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.909836, "excess_performance": 0.468464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131196, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.396515, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.322621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082907, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.143776, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04348, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.909836, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.757309, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35461904, "relative_activity": 0.601656, "balance": 3.757309, "dry_up": 0.38527, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.2138, "annualized_volatility": 0.837805, "from_high_reference": -0.341808, "from_low_reference": 2.140162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102.988333, "fair_value_reference": 50.158855, "structural_low": 55.599998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.033048, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.040655, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.042471, "worst_return": -0.114124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.105862, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.154881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.042471, "worst_return": -0.21337, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023427, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.013143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231638, "worst_return": -0.127833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.377778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.215827, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148352, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029312, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": 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"relative_strength": 48.39251, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.582646, "energy": 50.693663, "activity_lines": [ 144.933333, 143.963636, 128.239524, 114.62957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 112.5, "volume": 11427516, "typical_volume": 72358278.1, "trend": 98.255, "fair_value": 48.72023, "relative_strength": 19.441092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.364054, "energy": 25.665457, "activity_lines": [ 133.266667, 139.054545, 128.026191, 115.67871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 131.5, "volume": 38686580, "typical_volume": 63811593.6, "trend": 100.875, "fair_value": 49.48699, "relative_strength": 34.725016, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.882766, "energy": 24.555117, "activity_lines": [ 130.1, 137.709091, 129.447143, 117.823548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 116.5, "volume": 35461904, "typical_volume": 58940507.35, "trend": 102.988333, "fair_value": 50.158855, "relative_strength": 14.377585, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.294327, "energy": 20.525326, "activity_lines": [ 123.666667, 133.472727, 129.228095, 118.831613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }