{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8dc83280-7e22-451a-b30f-74af9bec12eb", "symbol": "OPTI", "name": "OptiBiotix Health Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.259, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.924, "architecture_energy": 25.006, "architecture_maturity": 24.794, "architecture_confidence": 61.268, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.78, "rotation_up": 10.52, "upward_expansion": 18.39, "deceleration": 65.47, "rotation_down": 59.44, "downward_expansion": 60.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.057433, 0.059236, 0.058833, 0.058751 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0575, "trend_reference": 0.06025, "distance_from_trend": -0.045643, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.157327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.634519, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.509234, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.248366, "excess_performance": -0.299601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045643, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059818, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.634519, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055957, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275092, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193432, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.248366, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.151452, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 470313, "relative_activity": 0.416054, "balance": 3.151452, "dry_up": 0.616416, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099037, "annualized_volatility": 0.485814, "from_high_reference": -0.574074, "from_low_reference": 0.277778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.06025, "fair_value_reference": 0.157327, "structural_low": 0.045, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.037383, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.004932, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.15625, "worst_return": -0.312281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.104762, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.123907, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.028169, "worst_return": -0.342466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.323944, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.409303, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.180952, "worst_return": -0.35514, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.428571, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.493823, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.364486, "worst_return": -0.619718, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.26729, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.233766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.311111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152542, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.068293, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.126761, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.202703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12069, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040323, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026786, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.2975, "volume": 1894712, "typical_volume": 3702364.8, "trend": 0.136633, "fair_value": 0.352582, "relative_strength": 104.075512, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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"modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.942116, "energy": 34.282645, "activity_lines": [ 0.0633, 0.062145, 0.059212, 0.059805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.056, "volume": 914862, "typical_volume": 1287753.6, "trend": 0.061017, "fair_value": 0.162481, "relative_strength": -31.129415, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.747929, "energy": 11.88669, "activity_lines": [ 0.061067, 0.061336, 0.05901, 0.059457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.056, "volume": 521560, "typical_volume": 1204839.45, "trend": 0.060633, "fair_value": 0.161029, "relative_strength": -30.716352, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.859779, "energy": 17.607441, "activity_lines": [ 0.059233, 0.060436, 0.058843, 0.059133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0575, "volume": 880482, "typical_volume": 1206589.05, "trend": 0.0603, "fair_value": 0.158897, "relative_strength": -28.423083, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.812544, "energy": 23.611126, "activity_lines": [ 0.058133, 0.059836, 0.058826, 0.058931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0575, "volume": 470313, "typical_volume": 1130412.8, "trend": 0.06025, "fair_value": 0.157327, "relative_strength": -27.509234, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.923835, "energy": 25.005639, "activity_lines": [ 0.057433, 0.059236, 0.058833, 0.058751 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }