{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8dd20393-140f-4bc1-8ce9-c9e1dd250f58", "symbol": "USDE", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P US Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF EUR Dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.8, "architecture_energy": 56.204, "architecture_maturity": 26.893, "architecture_confidence": 61.252, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.56, "rotation_up": 69.95, "upward_expansion": 83.35, "deceleration": 60.66, "rotation_down": 15.24, "downward_expansion": 7.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.274067, 9.226085, 9.096556, 9.040596 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.327, "trend_reference": 8.991832, "distance_from_trend": 0.037275, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.10997, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.150066, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.395033, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019739, "excess_performance": -0.151153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037275, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.150066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043394, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004998, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.197005, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152736, "relative_activity": 2.903362, "balance": 1.197005, "dry_up": 1.872816, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017782, "annualized_volatility": 0.097043, "from_high_reference": -0.01914, "from_low_reference": 0.147595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.991832, "fair_value_reference": 8.10997, "structural_low": 8.487, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.001987, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.005267, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.059537, "worst_return": -0.057862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001388, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.038224, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.068566, "worst_return": -0.081805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036735, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.077884, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.073603, "worst_return": -0.080531, 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8.97587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.286, "volume": 112308, "typical_volume": 64521.75, "trend": 8.940061, "fair_value": 8.087014, "relative_strength": -5.936454, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.438135, "energy": 82.603313, "activity_lines": [ 9.2582, 9.166995, 9.036133, 9.000127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.208, "volume": 39823, "typical_volume": 55365.55, "trend": 8.967677, "fair_value": 8.097739, "relative_strength": -7.13305, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.130717, "energy": 53.79941, "activity_lines": [ 9.248133, 9.188267, 9.061466, 9.017413 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.327, "volume": 152736, "typical_volume": 52606.6, "trend": 8.991832, "fair_value": 8.10997, "relative_strength": -8.395033, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.800124, "energy": 56.20363, "activity_lines": [ 9.274067, 9.226085, 9.096556, 9.040596 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }