{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8dd77aa4-6374-44b0-a3c4-7bb38a55a127", "symbol": "C1NS34", "name": "Celanese Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.056, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.801, "architecture_energy": 88.288, "architecture_maturity": 25.922, "architecture_confidence": 88.612, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.44, "rotation_up": 23.48, "upward_expansion": 21.42, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 66.29, "downward_expansion": 97.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 115.057876, 117.200659, 126.359333, 132.290534 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 112.300003, "trend_reference": 136.296553, "distance_from_trend": -0.176061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 232.385778, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.516752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.546081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181748, "excess_performance": -0.1247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176061, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018756, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.516752, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019512, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181748, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.865642, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 218, "relative_activity": 0.325811, "balance": 2.865642, "dry_up": 0.10275, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055581, "annualized_volatility": 0.528193, "from_high_reference": -0.358083, "from_low_reference": 0.174526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 136.296553, "fair_value_reference": 232.385778, "structural_low": 106.790001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.001914, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.047363, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.212191, "worst_return": -0.283501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.061578, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.104168, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.375963, "worst_return": -0.391413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076285, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.178956, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.257692, "worst_return": -0.585884, "sufficient": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051498, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.38169, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131289, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.260409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 117.748819, "volume": 1426, "typical_volume": 771.85, "trend": 136.710786, "fair_value": 236.956678, "relative_strength": -16.809653, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.430681, "energy": 75.008575, "activity_lines": [ 120.111067, 125.057159, 136.040781, 137.947543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 112.139908, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 730.8, "trend": 136.571498, "fair_value": 235.867024, "relative_strength": -17.781736, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.782614, "energy": 91.563083, "activity_lines": [ 116.715334, 121.955405, 133.24699, 136.362325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.433159, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 715.15, "trend": 136.447695, "fair_value": 234.733036, "relative_strength": -15.08799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.919178, "energy": 87.398654, "activity_lines": [ 115.102023, 119.754607, 130.7367, 134.934045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.760002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 695.6, "trend": 136.586727, "fair_value": 233.597891, "relative_strength": -12.351543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.387192, "energy": 80.553894, "activity_lines": [ 116.33745, 119.045906, 128.823941, 133.857419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.300003, "volume": 218, "typical_volume": 669.1, "trend": 136.296553, "fair_value": 232.385778, "relative_strength": -14.546081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.800752, "energy": 88.287748, "activity_lines": [ 115.057876, 117.200659, 126.359333, 132.290534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }