{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ddba5d8-6f0a-4ce8-be73-7c40ca1e5c73", "symbol": "CARZ", "name": "FIRST TRUST S-NETWORK FUTURE VEHICLES & TECHNOLOGY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.36, "architecture_energy": 18.89, "architecture_maturity": 69.687, "architecture_confidence": 78.412, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.27, "rotation_up": 16.47, "upward_expansion": 45.91, "deceleration": 87.79, "rotation_down": 39.72, "downward_expansion": 28.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 104.526527, 107.188904, 108.366388, 104.04966 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 107.6343, "trend_reference": 98.222313, "distance_from_trend": 0.095823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.90599, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.633149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.529355, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.264817, "excess_performance": 0.077364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12413, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.633149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227313, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085294, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.264817, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.750514, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19427, "relative_activity": 1.037102, "balance": 0.750514, "dry_up": 1.171351, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075142, "annualized_volatility": 0.334199, "from_high_reference": -0.126132, "from_low_reference": 0.687253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.222313, "fair_value_reference": 65.90599, "structural_low": 76.34, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.052368, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.000544, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.202992, "worst_return": -0.126454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052841, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.024536, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.502817, "worst_return": -0.136343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -1e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063262, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.050565, "worst_return": -0.191169, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 101.3611, "volume": 35893, "typical_volume": 19139.7, "trend": 96.678573, "fair_value": 65.24065, "relative_strength": 9.134798, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.510322, "energy": 22.819232, "activity_lines": [ 105.6202, 109.468209, 108.045271, 103.037665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.1412, "volume": 16150, "typical_volume": 19334.95, "trend": 97.411003, "fair_value": 65.549004, "relative_strength": 8.797618, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.708332, "energy": 17.962655, "activity_lines": [ 103.819687, 107.72056, 107.993673, 103.390092 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.6343, "volume": 19427, "typical_volume": 18732.0, "trend": 98.222313, "fair_value": 65.90599, "relative_strength": 8.529355, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.360163, "energy": 18.889723, "activity_lines": [ 104.526527, 107.188904, 108.366388, 104.04966 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }