{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8de32cfd-2abe-43ab-912b-30a40145691a", "symbol": "RGCO", "name": "RGC Resources Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 70.53, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.728, "architecture_energy": 17.475, "architecture_maturity": 59.406, "architecture_confidence": 52.196, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.1, "rotation_up": 23.58, "upward_expansion": 25.67, "deceleration": 59.53, "rotation_down": 53.0, "downward_expansion": 34.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.254506, 22.875921, 22.994449, 22.761227 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.87, "trend_reference": 22.396927, "distance_from_trend": -0.023527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.862099, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.952408, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010591, "excess_performance": -0.176863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023527, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093648, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033878, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010591, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.150328, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96575, "relative_activity": 1.570952, "balance": 1.150328, "dry_up": 1.352398, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084906, "annualized_volatility": 0.293655, "from_high_reference": -0.211567, "from_low_reference": 0.083706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.396927, "fair_value_reference": 19.862099, "structural_low": 20.640475, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.003552, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026373, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.128098, "worst_return": -0.167031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003623, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.066617, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.056509, "worst_return": -0.207753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049153, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.113552, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.136963, "worst_return": -0.239625, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.211156, "energy": 34.01504, "activity_lines": [ 24.044205, 23.761626, 23.300463, 22.871999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.0, "volume": 79263, "typical_volume": 60101.95, "trend": 22.330975, "fair_value": 19.805319, "relative_strength": -7.947523, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.693568, "energy": 14.458953, "activity_lines": [ 23.383398, 23.502149, 23.220599, 22.851924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.4, "volume": 71623, "typical_volume": 61415.85, "trend": 22.344841, "fair_value": 19.8289, "relative_strength": -10.774067, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.901846, "energy": 10.444591, "activity_lines": [ 22.673552, 23.136307, 23.084947, 22.791861 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.87, "volume": 96575, "typical_volume": 61475.45, "trend": 22.396927, "fair_value": 19.862099, "relative_strength": -12.952408, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.727719, "energy": 17.474831, "activity_lines": [ 22.254506, 22.875921, 22.994449, 22.761227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }