{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8debbbfa-b555-4b9c-9bde-0ccbfbf2ea87", "symbol": "BWMX", "name": "Betterware de M\u00e9xico, S.A.P.I. de C.V.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.696, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.577, "architecture_energy": 14.531, "architecture_maturity": 10.747, "architecture_confidence": 58.124, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.88, "rotation_up": 21.87, "upward_expansion": 18.26, "deceleration": 59.74, "rotation_down": 50.54, "downward_expansion": 38.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.875338, 17.238782, 17.267696, 17.202743 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.72, "trend_reference": 17.154357, "distance_from_trend": -0.025321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.651628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.376168, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035167, "excess_performance": -0.160792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074521, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321569, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045316, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1403, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035167, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.058522, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 473136, "relative_activity": 1.201078, "balance": 2.058522, "dry_up": 1.22863, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080581, "annualized_volatility": 0.317157, "from_high_reference": -0.13323, "from_low_reference": 0.434361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.154357, "fair_value_reference": 12.651628, "structural_low": 15.005339, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.077586, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.021102, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.30433, "worst_return": -0.095035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.331819, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.215352, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.331819, "worst_return": 0.331819, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.22913, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.060385, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22913, "worst_return": 0.22913, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.189535, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04532, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031414, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.192046, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": 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"gate": "up", "direction": 51.430079, "energy": 28.53046, "activity_lines": [ 17.797506, 17.666288, 17.36643, 17.219191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.951394, "volume": 325400, "typical_volume": 396151.3, "trend": 16.965215, "fair_value": 12.542958, "relative_strength": 8.926588, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.924791, "energy": 27.639355, "activity_lines": [ 17.836483, 17.769015, 17.44539, 17.292822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.375508, "volume": 361858, "typical_volume": 375526.15, "trend": 17.069712, "fair_value": 12.583012, "relative_strength": -0.574463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.277797, "energy": 8.704808, "activity_lines": [ 17.355404, 17.558131, 17.364874, 17.254777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.659363, "volume": 775564, "typical_volume": 391893.25, "trend": 17.116167, "fair_value": 12.618962, "relative_strength": -0.173005, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.909187, "energy": 6.957214, "activity_lines": [ 17.065244, 17.392756, 17.313868, 17.228302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.72, "volume": 473136, "typical_volume": 393926.1, "trend": 17.154357, "fair_value": 12.651628, "relative_strength": -3.376168, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.577136, "energy": 14.531054, "activity_lines": [ 16.875338, 17.238782, 17.267696, 17.202743 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }