{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8dedf838-8998-4503-a9c3-b50b45b959e7", "symbol": "SETH", "name": "AMINA Ethereum ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.491, "architecture_energy": 27.953, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.94, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.49, "rotation_up": 33.95, "upward_expansion": 20.67, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 19.6, "downward_expansion": 54.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.425747, 1.375389, 1.421234, 1.466088 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.4568, "trend_reference": 1.559257, "distance_from_trend": -0.065709, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.217803, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.343134, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.691404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031436, "excess_performance": -0.051447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065709, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.343134, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088707, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.386914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074519, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031436, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059899, "annualized_volatility": 0.42657, "from_high_reference": -0.613817, "from_low_reference": 0.20596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.559257, "fair_value_reference": 2.217803, "structural_low": 1.208, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.032545, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.018217, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.399218, "worst_return": -0.401043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.238405, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.239022, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.491785, "worst_return": -0.284362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.580311, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.482191, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.267201, "worst_return": -0.444106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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1.332987, 1.331425, 1.438283, 1.500871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.436, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 532.2, "trend": 1.616533, "fair_value": 2.220299, "relative_strength": -40.763476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.817479, "energy": 35.56336, "activity_lines": [ 1.374493, 1.342535, 1.431953, 1.487558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.4164, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 429.45, "trend": 1.589447, "fair_value": 2.21859, "relative_strength": -40.649248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.058112, "energy": 28.223225, "activity_lines": [ 1.400333, 1.353884, 1.424271, 1.474646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.4568, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 429.45, "trend": 1.559257, "fair_value": 2.217803, "relative_strength": -38.691404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.491468, "energy": 27.95274, "activity_lines": [ 1.425747, 1.375389, 1.421234, 1.466088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }