{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e09c85d-0634-4546-96cd-34bb9dd31b96", "symbol": "MXUS", "name": "Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.868, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.609, "architecture_energy": 66.704, "architecture_maturity": 87.509, "architecture_confidence": 64.672, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.71, "rotation_up": 53.39, "upward_expansion": 82.75, "deceleration": 71.31, "rotation_down": 28.96, "downward_expansion": 11.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 193.574666, 192.799818, 189.945857, 185.589613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 197.610001, "trend_reference": 180.458667, "distance_from_trend": 0.095043, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 153.346539, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.096396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.159343, "excess_performance": -0.011549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095043, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040859, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037786, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004339, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159343, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.061383, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17051, "relative_activity": 1.030836, "balance": 2.061383, "dry_up": 1.309931, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018759, "annualized_volatility": 0.119755, "from_high_reference": -0.002826, "from_low_reference": 0.245572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 180.458667, "fair_value_reference": 153.346539, "structural_low": 162.759995, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.013429, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.00755, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.083644, "worst_return": -0.104354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.030419, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.012973, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.126458, "worst_return": -0.180204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.072366, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.001273, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.204565, "worst_return": -0.086301, 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"volume": 18516, "typical_volume": 16727.1, "trend": 179.064668, "fair_value": 152.344872, "relative_strength": -2.374006, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.457072, "energy": 64.617596, "activity_lines": [ 192.669334, 191.924001, 187.954286, 183.739399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 189.839996, "volume": 31630, "typical_volume": 16145.5, "trend": 179.707001, "fair_value": 152.817244, "relative_strength": -4.228301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.874449, "energy": 58.977216, "activity_lines": [ 191.825332, 191.659454, 188.62681, 184.434581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 197.610001, "volume": 17051, "typical_volume": 16540.95, "trend": 180.458667, "fair_value": 153.346539, "relative_strength": -3.096396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.608757, "energy": 66.704059, "activity_lines": [ 193.574666, 192.799818, 189.945857, 185.589613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }