{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e0e2ea1-bf7e-4c59-9491-62b397aa757a", "symbol": "LEMSE", "name": "Leading Edge Materials Corp.", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.001, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.926, "architecture_energy": 8.781, "architecture_maturity": 14.803, "architecture_confidence": 81.539, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.1, "rotation_up": 33.73, "upward_expansion": 35.88, "deceleration": 33.75, "rotation_down": 27.5, "downward_expansion": 44.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.994867, 1.961927, 1.944857, 1.975892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.02, "trend_reference": 2.008333, "distance_from_trend": 0.005809, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.335032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.513072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.638542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051643, "excess_performance": -0.113138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005809, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033306, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.513072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058773, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123526, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.045477, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 632530, "relative_activity": 1.229803, "balance": 1.045477, "dry_up": 1.351049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128827, "annualized_volatility": 0.71594, "from_high_reference": -0.288732, "from_low_reference": 0.87907 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.008333, "fair_value_reference": 1.335032, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.065081, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.046943, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.245791, "worst_return": -0.180505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.064982, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.116928, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.175084, "worst_return": -0.531771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.230028, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.203759, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140794, "worst_return": -0.65625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.441143, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.555623, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.28304, "worst_return": -0.544271, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173285, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055794, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004219, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080972, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077441, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.454545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.277512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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1.312064, "relative_strength": 12.910533, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.405262, "energy": 14.032304, "activity_lines": [ 1.8832, 1.879909, 1.944557, 1.974789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.005, "volume": 719843, "typical_volume": 735503.7, "trend": 1.9776, "fair_value": 1.316071, "relative_strength": 2.707524, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.303121, "energy": 14.557594, "activity_lines": [ 1.940867, 1.895873, 1.944305, 1.977116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.88, "volume": 632990, "typical_volume": 715706.05, "trend": 1.984767, "fair_value": 1.31966, "relative_strength": -3.093079, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.742525, "energy": 18.498493, "activity_lines": [ 1.946267, 1.893109, 1.932314, 1.970819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.11, "volume": 897046, "typical_volume": 658705.0, "trend": 1.996267, "fair_value": 1.325173, "relative_strength": 6.311761, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.934383, "energy": 16.527849, "activity_lines": [ 2.0158, 1.9348, 1.943943, 1.978899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.932, "volume": 616998, "typical_volume": 545726.85, "trend": 2.002333, "fair_value": 1.329994, "relative_strength": -4.550781, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.448156, "energy": 12.143364, "activity_lines": [ 1.999333, 1.940527, 1.93881, 1.974753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.02, "volume": 632530, "typical_volume": 514334.4, "trend": 2.008333, "fair_value": 1.335032, "relative_strength": -2.638542, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.926263, "energy": 8.780929, "activity_lines": [ 1.994867, 1.961927, 1.944857, 1.975892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }