{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e128af8-2d66-4de2-a5a5-863f625f2412", "symbol": "9555", "name": "Leen Alkhair Trading Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.427, "architecture_energy": 68.313, "architecture_maturity": 68.562, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.9, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 50.91, "rotation_down": 53.76, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.828667, 11.900545, 12.644905, 13.90071 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.67, "trend_reference": 15.454667, "distance_from_trend": -0.244888, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.709615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.46245, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.878174, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.365761, "excess_performance": -0.333931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.244888, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.46245, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024472, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.365761, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.244276, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.244276, "dry_up": 0.50794, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044822, "annualized_volatility": 0.529877, "from_high_reference": -0.365761, "from_low_reference": 0.023684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.454667, "fair_value_reference": 21.709615, "structural_low": 11.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.025219, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.268966, "worst_return": -0.145729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018298, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.023217, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.312411, "worst_return": -0.225414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.136947, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.069369, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.129918, "worst_return": -0.261328, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128795, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.198103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083969, 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"typical_volume": 3576.7, "trend": 15.454667, "fair_value": 21.709615, "relative_strength": -24.878174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.427055, "energy": 68.313104, "activity_lines": [ 11.828667, 11.900545, 12.644905, 13.90071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }