{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e134a6b-27e5-4b44-b1dd-77dd6ea08a4c", "symbol": "000665", "name": "Hubei Radio & Television Information Network Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.844, "architecture_energy": 46.777, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.153, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.39, "rotation_up": 26.37, "upward_expansion": 19.06, "deceleration": 66.87, "rotation_down": 45.6, "downward_expansion": 69.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.831333, 3.822, 4.068952, 4.320581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.95, "trend_reference": 4.697, "distance_from_trend": -0.159038, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.75141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.168668, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.762702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.271218, "excess_performance": -0.278617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125217, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.168668, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277627, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006485, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393272, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65788720, "relative_activity": 0.967196, "balance": 0.393272, "dry_up": 1.137671, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080428, "annualized_volatility": 0.257061, "from_high_reference": -0.45215, "from_low_reference": 0.11898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.697, "fair_value_reference": 4.75141, "structural_low": 3.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.021744, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014774, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 1.142857, "worst_return": -0.245077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027266, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.015179, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.746224, "worst_return": -0.221007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005484, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014506, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.553371, "worst_return": -0.2407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.401952, 4.665183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.84, "volume": 80262017, "typical_volume": 69386833.6, "trend": 4.931333, "fair_value": 4.797244, "relative_strength": -36.126942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.571512, "energy": 84.752241, "activity_lines": [ 3.809333, 4.006727, 4.322762, 4.590753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.74, "volume": 85954312, "typical_volume": 70073050.45, "trend": 4.874667, "fair_value": 4.785192, "relative_strength": -30.976088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.489456, "energy": 74.412563, "activity_lines": [ 3.772, 3.919818, 4.242048, 4.513892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.6, "volume": 76086933, "typical_volume": 69301061.65, "trend": 4.812333, "fair_value": 4.772756, "relative_strength": -33.178697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.420596, "energy": 66.820564, "activity_lines": [ 3.71, 3.830182, 4.156381, 4.431656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.9, "volume": 81707924, "typical_volume": 69262485.3, "trend": 4.759333, "fair_value": 4.761923, "relative_strength": -25.751977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.083883, "energy": 56.33378, "activity_lines": [ 3.77, 3.815273, 4.107429, 4.372796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.95, "volume": 65788720, "typical_volume": 68020079.7, "trend": 4.697, "fair_value": 4.75141, "relative_strength": -27.762702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.844058, "energy": 46.776946, "activity_lines": [ 3.831333, 3.822, 4.068952, 4.320581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }