{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e157887-1331-48ea-9380-a3ab63c00172", "symbol": "9404", "name": "ChinaAMC MSCI India ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.808, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 15.594, "architecture_energy": 22.211, "architecture_maturity": 11.219, "architecture_confidence": 49.699, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.88, "rotation_up": 38.85, "upward_expansion": 35.01, "deceleration": 33.55, "rotation_down": 19.52, "downward_expansion": 45.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.822267, 0.818, 0.812286, 0.813948 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.837, "trend_reference": 0.824433, "distance_from_trend": 0.015243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.866021, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.033511, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.997187, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055305, "excess_performance": -0.021723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015243, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036164, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.033511, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025827, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019972, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075399, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.296612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.296612, "dry_up": 4.285069, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017645, "annualized_volatility": 0.206134, "from_high_reference": -0.093174, "from_low_reference": 0.11749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.824433, "fair_value_reference": 0.866021, "structural_low": 0.749, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.02448, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.037274, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.02448, "worst_return": 0.02448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021583, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02448, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 0.956, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 0.946, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.319039, "energy": 7.482128, "activity_lines": [ 0.814667, 0.812964, 0.809233, 0.813271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.837, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 44270.0, "trend": 0.824433, "fair_value": 0.866021, "relative_strength": -1.997187, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.593945, "energy": 22.210908, "activity_lines": [ 0.822267, 0.818, 0.812286, 0.813948 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }