{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e1a651a-d55d-4737-96e8-44f16f5b441e", "symbol": "600905", "name": "China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.025, "architecture_energy": 44.201, "architecture_maturity": 57.499, "architecture_confidence": 74.423, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.35, "rotation_up": 24.52, "upward_expansion": 10.77, "deceleration": 60.84, "rotation_down": 47.91, "downward_expansion": 72.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.81682, 3.829243, 3.937962, 4.008357 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.77, "trend_reference": 4.078112, "distance_from_trend": -0.075553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.333386, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130011, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.531218, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.082725, "excess_performance": -0.039521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02383, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130011, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068413, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015924, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082725, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.851681, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 531124971, "relative_activity": 0.781539, "balance": 0.851681, "dry_up": 0.889339, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044165, "annualized_volatility": 0.204844, "from_high_reference": -0.192719, "from_low_reference": 0.04371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.078112, "fair_value_reference": 4.333386, "structural_low": 3.612114, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.016035, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.10269, "worst_return": -0.102934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.023723, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011402, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.094037, "worst_return": -0.095539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019827, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.102332, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.073394, "worst_return": -0.173281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -78.96975, "energy": 89.694029, "activity_lines": [ 3.798111, 3.936831, 4.037447, 4.080499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.760557, "volume": 576961812, "typical_volume": 843541834.7, "trend": 4.105446, "fair_value": 4.357421, "relative_strength": -5.543747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.834421, "energy": 85.149078, "activity_lines": [ 3.756776, 3.889973, 4.003629, 4.057432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.86, "volume": 798790982, "typical_volume": 823157539.5, "trend": 4.096446, "fair_value": 4.349435, "relative_strength": -3.994013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.662938, "energy": 78.889159, "activity_lines": [ 3.776551, 3.868457, 3.981185, 4.041597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.9, "volume": 510658770, "typical_volume": 728029234.6, "trend": 4.088779, "fair_value": 4.341643, "relative_strength": -3.134472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.852552, "energy": 48.847943, "activity_lines": [ 3.82366, 3.858759, 3.964502, 4.028923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.77, "volume": 531124971, "typical_volume": 679588357.9, "trend": 4.078112, "fair_value": 4.333386, "relative_strength": -8.531218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.025004, "energy": 44.200789, "activity_lines": [ 3.81682, 3.829243, 3.937962, 4.008357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }