{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e1c4579-6479-4466-9c72-05bff34c2f60", "symbol": "XMEU", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.071, "architecture_energy": 61.168, "architecture_maturity": 33.323, "architecture_confidence": 86.566, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 60.11, "upward_expansion": 82.63, "deceleration": 56.12, "rotation_down": 23.72, "downward_expansion": 9.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 10279.6, 10231.872727, 10093.933333, 9965.57957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10462.0, "trend_reference": 9832.45, "distance_from_trend": 0.064028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8216.617181, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273273, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.238986, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079224, "excess_performance": 0.027989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033568, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273273, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051899, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01239, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0095, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079224, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.264944, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34836, "relative_activity": 0.437448, "balance": 4.264944, "dry_up": 0.779505, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018309, "annualized_volatility": 0.150397, "from_high_reference": -0.134068, "from_low_reference": 0.232418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9832.45, "fair_value_reference": 8216.617181, "structural_low": 8813.146484, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.003425, "positive_rate": 0.606061, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": 0.004431, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.053252, "worst_return": -0.099692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.015038, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.00512, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.085775, "worst_return": -0.040772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.048336, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.00846, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.145676, "worst_return": -0.102127, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 80036.15, "trend": 9773.083333, "fair_value": 8170.569104, "relative_strength": 0.129893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.864801, "energy": 50.575847, "activity_lines": [ 10162.0, 10143.509091, 9995.457143, 9891.362366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10264.0, "volume": 96595, "typical_volume": 80697.4, "trend": 9802.55, "fair_value": 8192.950515, "relative_strength": -0.334135, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.036703, "energy": 47.796981, "activity_lines": [ 10191.4, 10172.527273, 10037.395238, 9923.034409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10462.0, "volume": 34836, "typical_volume": 79634.55, "trend": 9832.45, "fair_value": 8216.617181, "relative_strength": 1.238986, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.070662, "energy": 61.168389, "activity_lines": [ 10279.6, 10231.872727, 10093.933333, 9965.57957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }