{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e217f0c-4cb2-42ab-b36d-b87d5173c70c", "symbol": "9403", "name": "Albilad Saudi Sovereign Sukuk Etf", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.581, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.406, "architecture_energy": 44.986, "architecture_maturity": 6.738, "architecture_confidence": 72.275, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.27, "rotation_up": 15.02, "upward_expansion": 21.59, "deceleration": 53.01, "rotation_down": 68.54, "downward_expansion": 51.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.42797, 8.457818, 8.478021, 8.474094 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.38, "trend_reference": 8.458049, "distance_from_trend": -0.009228, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.94449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054819, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.466279, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002595, "excess_performance": 0.050871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006474, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054819, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01781, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014663, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003748, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002595, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.509882, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 650552, "relative_activity": 1.254658, "balance": 0.509882, "dry_up": 1.034574, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008058, "annualized_volatility": 0.020184, "from_high_reference": -0.031537, "from_low_reference": 0.040394 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.458049, "fair_value_reference": 7.94449, "structural_low": 8.35, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.002981, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041855, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.005933, "worst_return": -0.021505, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002976, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.010771, "worst_return": -0.016724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.009962, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00173, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.009962, "worst_return": -0.009962, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 495267.15, "trend": 8.452429, "fair_value": 7.934664, "relative_strength": 4.050878, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.999712, "energy": 14.289263, "activity_lines": [ 8.486704, 8.499073, 8.495877, 8.480101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.455925, "volume": 606622, "typical_volume": 524392.8, "trend": 8.455585, "fair_value": 7.938144, "relative_strength": 2.985651, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.241411, "energy": 12.210056, "activity_lines": [ 8.473299, 8.490083, 8.493029, 8.480326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.436075, "volume": 195450, "typical_volume": 505770.95, "trend": 8.457097, "fair_value": 7.941614, "relative_strength": 4.657866, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.733882, "energy": 25.848605, "activity_lines": [ 8.457083, 8.478286, 8.488183, 8.479068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.38, "volume": 650552, "typical_volume": 518509.35, "trend": 8.458049, "fair_value": 7.94449, "relative_strength": 1.466279, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.406015, "energy": 44.985551, "activity_lines": [ 8.42797, 8.457818, 8.478021, 8.474094 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }