{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e21aedf-4c1c-4055-a473-064d8539f943", "symbol": "PSCE", "name": "INVESCO S&P SMALLCAP ENERGY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.59, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -3.928, "architecture_energy": 8.501, "architecture_maturity": 17.424, "architecture_confidence": 77.442, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.22, "rotation_up": 34.31, "upward_expansion": 22.91, "deceleration": 51.09, "rotation_down": 22.46, "downward_expansion": 25.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.247447, 56.720629, 57.72043, 57.827536 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 57.16, "trend_reference": 56.861705, "distance_from_trend": 0.005246, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.364475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.808735, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.082429, "excess_performance": -0.105024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005246, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085635, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181859, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095707, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082429, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.170336, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71665, "relative_activity": 0.389734, "balance": 3.170336, "dry_up": 0.558334, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055419, "annualized_volatility": 0.253798, "from_high_reference": -0.114464, "from_low_reference": 0.515421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.861705, "fair_value_reference": 48.364475, "structural_low": 51.01399, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.000754, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.009133, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.164804, "worst_return": -0.151203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011796, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.066433, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.203299, "worst_return": -0.170309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.072422, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.035607, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.442358, "worst_return": 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25.315192, "activity_lines": [ 55.402299, 56.858907, 58.226855, 57.412922 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.1494, "volume": 89514, "typical_volume": 200605.6, "trend": 55.499737, "fair_value": 48.264672, "relative_strength": 4.159153, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.777773, "energy": 26.302991, "activity_lines": [ 55.762389, 56.692653, 58.092708, 57.551474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.41, "volume": 159379, "typical_volume": 196534.75, "trend": 55.996434, "fair_value": 48.303389, "relative_strength": 6.005746, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.778425, "energy": 12.86406, "activity_lines": [ 56.383907, 56.621128, 57.973384, 57.674717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.6654, "volume": 90112, "typical_volume": 191754.25, "trend": 56.460274, "fair_value": 48.339149, "relative_strength": 5.481162, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.48933, "energy": 10.814587, "activity_lines": [ 56.96094, 56.67487, 57.872212, 57.782392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.16, "volume": 71665, "typical_volume": 183881.9, "trend": 56.861705, "fair_value": 48.364475, "relative_strength": -0.808735, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.92808, "energy": 8.501248, "activity_lines": [ 57.247447, 56.720629, 57.72043, 57.827536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }