{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e25eb03-41ac-4b69-9250-a4257e60e304", "symbol": "002454", "name": "Songz Automobile Air Conditioning Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.939, "architecture_energy": 58.516, "architecture_maturity": 32.519, "architecture_confidence": 93.752, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.36, "rotation_up": 22.44, "upward_expansion": 10.31, "deceleration": 51.39, "rotation_down": 58.74, "downward_expansion": 83.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.806, 4.885273, 5.407484, 5.684656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.96, "trend_reference": 5.983262, "distance_from_trend": -0.171021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.022358, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.918586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.226573, "excess_performance": -0.233973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171021, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012416, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.33714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109239, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.226573, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.848749, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55005389, "relative_activity": 0.687728, "balance": 0.848749, "dry_up": 0.665702, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093748, "annualized_volatility": 0.389891, "from_high_reference": -0.354314, "from_low_reference": 0.122172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.983262, "fair_value_reference": 5.022358, "structural_low": 4.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.010909, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.02861, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.868825, "worst_return": -0.243626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006775, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.000563, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.331273, "worst_return": -0.179887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.168946, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.108757, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.263789, "worst_return": -0.212676, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030252, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128834, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.13658, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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4.86, 5.157536, 5.732356, 5.929042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.57, "volume": 57143376, "typical_volume": 79822290.55, "trend": 6.060482, "fair_value": 5.029896, "relative_strength": -24.359553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.164878, "energy": 86.049894, "activity_lines": [ 4.732, 4.985636, 5.594884, 5.829798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.87, "volume": 48075841, "typical_volume": 79640973.45, "trend": 6.019217, "fair_value": 5.024815, "relative_strength": -17.687901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.627067, "energy": 78.11097, "activity_lines": [ 4.754, 4.910364, 5.493802, 5.752992 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.96, "volume": 55005389, "typical_volume": 79981329.95, "trend": 5.983262, "fair_value": 5.022358, "relative_strength": -19.918586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.938581, "energy": 58.516403, "activity_lines": [ 4.806, 4.885273, 5.407484, 5.684656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }