{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e2718df-464c-45ca-8b7d-783998a1ea6c", "symbol": "OGI", "name": "OrganiGram Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.831, "architecture_energy": 55.038, "architecture_maturity": 78.343, "architecture_confidence": 95.701, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 26.35, "upward_expansion": 9.17, "deceleration": 51.41, "rotation_down": 53.61, "downward_expansion": 82.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.95184, 0.968613, 1.054475, 1.139657 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.99, "trend_reference": 1.256003, "distance_from_trend": -0.211786, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.518851, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.348191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.95602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.352941, "excess_performance": -0.540395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.211786, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158645, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.348191, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21644, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.40956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572505, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1306900, "relative_activity": 0.466422, "balance": 0.572505, "dry_up": 0.601247, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112848, "annualized_volatility": 0.525127, "from_high_reference": -0.558036, "from_low_reference": 0.160474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.256003, "fair_value_reference": 1.518851, "structural_low": 0.8531, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.255814, "directional_follow_through": 0.744186, "median_excess_return": -0.041117, "regime_survival": 0.906977, "best_return": 0.271028, "worst_return": -0.229299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.176923, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.139284, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.281481, "worst_return": -0.390625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.277778, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.167796, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.137363, "worst_return": -0.37, "sufficient": true }, 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111475, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.254545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.247525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.10596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014815, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": 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1.036507, 1.155119, 1.238402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8999, "volume": 3467308, "typical_volume": 3076389.0, "trend": 1.335203, "fair_value": 1.527351, "relative_strength": -45.785386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.864113, "energy": 62.835926, "activity_lines": [ 0.965347, 1.00374, 1.122318, 1.207931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9347, "volume": 1026263, "typical_volume": 2908384.35, "trend": 1.306693, "fair_value": 1.523983, "relative_strength": -42.148369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.969621, "energy": 70.263677, "activity_lines": [ 0.95084, 0.985665, 1.095355, 1.182092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9393, "volume": 938231, "typical_volume": 2842025.3, "trend": 1.280337, "fair_value": 1.52103, "relative_strength": -41.685185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.566108, "energy": 68.394381, "activity_lines": [ 0.939867, 0.970887, 1.07138, 1.158389 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.99, "volume": 1306900, "typical_volume": 2801970.1, "trend": 1.256003, "fair_value": 1.518851, "relative_strength": -40.95602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.831081, "energy": 55.037952, "activity_lines": [ 0.95184, 0.968613, 1.054475, 1.139657 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }