{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e2994a2-b84b-49c5-9c3d-cc90d9855709", "symbol": "8097", "name": "ATW Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.611, "architecture_energy": 63.47, "architecture_maturity": 10.949, "architecture_confidence": 84.249, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.85, "rotation_up": 9.09, "upward_expansion": 12.83, "deceleration": 37.96, "rotation_down": 73.08, "downward_expansion": 88.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.519999, 53.490908, 54.803333, 55.047526 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.599998, "trend_reference": 55.413333, "distance_from_trend": -0.086862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 64.726602, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21825, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.00547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.099644, "excess_performance": -0.541016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21825, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049835, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.400055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034289, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099644, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.381554, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 594068, "relative_activity": 1.276946, "balance": 0.381554, "dry_up": 0.998807, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086805, "annualized_volatility": 0.255522, "from_high_reference": -0.294282, "from_low_reference": 0.016064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.413333, "fair_value_reference": 64.726602, "structural_low": 49.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.004392, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.042387, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.228718, "worst_return": -0.141856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011637, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.078543, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.380435, "worst_return": -0.055441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008725, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.249233, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.303901, "worst_return": -0.219325, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 56.286667, 57.298181, 56.341428, 56.242365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.099998, "volume": 246015, "typical_volume": 524249.85, "trend": 56.366666, "fair_value": 64.673397, "relative_strength": -38.8528, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.334512, "energy": 29.21129, "activity_lines": [ 54.546666, 56.338181, 55.970952, 55.945806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.799999, "volume": 443150, "typical_volume": 461607.2, "trend": 56.033333, "fair_value": 64.690385, "relative_strength": -37.131959, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.905119, "energy": 41.663738, "activity_lines": [ 53.253333, 55.352726, 55.584761, 55.651182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.799999, "volume": 575451, "typical_volume": 460779.15, "trend": 55.723333, "fair_value": 64.714423, "relative_strength": -37.489567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.845895, "energy": 54.2898, "activity_lines": [ 52.379999, 54.467272, 55.237142, 55.378064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 50.599998, "volume": 594068, "typical_volume": 465225.8, "trend": 55.413333, "fair_value": 64.726602, "relative_strength": -40.00547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.611064, "energy": 63.470392, "activity_lines": [ 51.519999, 53.490908, 54.803333, 55.047526 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }