{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e2a805b-0523-427a-91a4-331ad70908c1", "symbol": "ZBK", "name": "BMO Equal Weight US Banks Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.718, "architecture_energy": 65.309, "architecture_maturity": 55.395, "architecture_confidence": 88.127, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 61.15, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 64.86, "rotation_down": 25.68, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.181333, 48.860778, 47.104674, 45.801165 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 49.290001, "trend_reference": 44.546767, "distance_from_trend": 0.106478, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.343549, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.435204, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.723049, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.060722, "excess_performance": -0.059699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106478, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053253, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.435204, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098051, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02723, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069969, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060722, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.325598, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68500, "relative_activity": 0.67671, "balance": 2.325598, "dry_up": 0.915041, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027272, "annualized_volatility": 0.215631, "from_high_reference": -0.025504, "from_low_reference": 0.342259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.546767, "fair_value_reference": 34.343549, "structural_low": 38.599262, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.009281, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.004533, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.108005, "worst_return": -0.180613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00507, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.006012, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.270503, "worst_return": -0.357333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.084823, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.055371, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.373676, "worst_return": -0.227743, "sufficient": true }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.063719, "energy": 89.746035, "activity_lines": [ 48.921382, 47.738544, 45.794642, 44.833619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.259998, "volume": 132600, "typical_volume": 122110.0, "trend": 44.181792, "fair_value": 34.004963, "relative_strength": 5.685594, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.829484, "energy": 88.183524, "activity_lines": [ 49.138333, 48.247646, 46.283589, 45.173833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.0, "volume": 67000, "typical_volume": 111680.0, "trend": 44.384566, "fair_value": 34.172482, "relative_strength": 5.508129, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.542837, "energy": 66.524759, "activity_lines": [ 49.128, 48.57734, 46.704683, 45.484685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.290001, "volume": 68500, "typical_volume": 101225.0, "trend": 44.546767, "fair_value": 34.343549, "relative_strength": 2.723049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.717806, "energy": 65.309188, "activity_lines": [ 49.181333, 48.860778, 47.104674, 45.801165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }