{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e2eeae6-a3a2-4647-895f-8816b98a963e", "symbol": "PJW", "name": "Panjawattana Plastic Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 89.758, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.849, "architecture_energy": 37.038, "architecture_maturity": 42.635, "architecture_confidence": 62.522, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.14, "rotation_up": 51.72, "upward_expansion": 80.07, "deceleration": 63.48, "rotation_down": 23.1, "downward_expansion": 4.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.078667, 2.074909, 2.052518, 2.036452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.06, "trend_reference": 2.015648, "distance_from_trend": 0.022004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.382576, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.916663, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076173, "excess_performance": -0.116152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018241, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13539, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060924, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021181, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076173, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.794937, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1128900, "relative_activity": 1.407457, "balance": 0.794937, "dry_up": 1.015354, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025392, "annualized_volatility": 0.188992, "from_high_reference": -0.078869, "from_low_reference": 0.097914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.015648, "fair_value_reference": 2.382576, "structural_low": 1.885762, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.018294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062704, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.183571, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055027, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.125467, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.00335, "worst_return": -0.093722, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047584, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.042422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103222, "worst_return": -0.008054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.940339, "energy": 65.565187, "activity_lines": [ 2.070667, 2.057455, 2.027976, 2.017096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.08, "volume": 941500, "typical_volume": 945545.0, "trend": 2.002857, "fair_value": 2.40894, "relative_strength": -12.629311, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.831209, "energy": 53.81637, "activity_lines": [ 2.076, 2.063273, 2.033966, 2.022348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.08, "volume": 690000, "typical_volume": 893190.0, "trend": 2.006489, "fair_value": 2.40004, "relative_strength": -12.448657, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.470333, "energy": 45.438312, "activity_lines": [ 2.078667, 2.068, 2.040429, 2.027325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.1, "volume": 497200, "typical_volume": 878470.0, "trend": 2.012051, "fair_value": 2.39138, "relative_strength": -10.201025, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.703451, "energy": 46.489648, "activity_lines": [ 2.086667, 2.075636, 2.04864, 2.033358 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.06, "volume": 1128900, "typical_volume": 802085.0, "trend": 2.015648, "fair_value": 2.382576, "relative_strength": -10.916663, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.849286, "energy": 37.037629, "activity_lines": [ 2.078667, 2.074909, 2.052518, 2.036452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }