{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e3cb7cd-f346-4838-be73-9f8bca74241b", "symbol": "SXLY", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.637, "architecture_energy": 25.929, "architecture_maturity": 20.279, "architecture_confidence": 77.649, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.22, "rotation_up": 37.94, "upward_expansion": 64.16, "deceleration": 88.37, "rotation_down": 28.05, "downward_expansion": 13.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.197335, 63.118001, 63.049191, 62.363162 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 65.400002, "trend_reference": 61.809334, "distance_from_trend": 0.058093, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.194103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.173636, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095111, "excess_performance": -0.075781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058093, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010696, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091736, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.629634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7298, "relative_activity": 0.711625, "balance": 1.629634, "dry_up": 0.910082, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032239, "annualized_volatility": 0.20677, "from_high_reference": -0.000611, "from_low_reference": 0.163908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.809334, "fair_value_reference": 55.194103, "structural_low": 56.189999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002585, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.011097, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.06575, "worst_return": -0.120035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0641, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.038764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093369, "worst_return": -0.130613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115652, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.045927, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.308472, "worst_return": -0.132664, 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040618, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130396, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013221, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": 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35.400836, "activity_lines": [ 63.500669, 63.435456, 62.668715, 62.106904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.43, "volume": 13935, "typical_volume": 12734.15, "trend": 61.867334, "fair_value": 54.860321, "relative_strength": -9.636429, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.885213, "energy": 37.084432, "activity_lines": [ 63.576668, 63.42491, 62.837572, 62.208323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.779999, "volume": 6730, "typical_volume": 11018.2, "trend": 61.760667, "fair_value": 54.952917, "relative_strength": -14.380491, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.31263, "energy": 6.933934, "activity_lines": [ 62.352001, 62.762183, 62.640477, 62.073657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.650002, "volume": 9370, "typical_volume": 10652.5, "trend": 61.802, "fair_value": 55.061635, "relative_strength": -10.641297, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.379527, "energy": 12.377149, "activity_lines": [ 62.320668, 62.675092, 62.722287, 62.131033 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.400002, "volume": 7298, "typical_volume": 10255.4, "trend": 61.809334, "fair_value": 55.194103, "relative_strength": -9.173636, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.636849, "energy": 25.928625, "activity_lines": [ 63.197335, 63.118001, 63.049191, 62.363162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }