{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e3cffa3-8b39-4ccd-b59b-7823d0d6b4e8", "symbol": "VGLT", "name": "VANGUARD LONG-TERM TREASURY INDEX FUND ETF SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.283, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.763, "architecture_energy": 72.377, "architecture_maturity": 26.246, "architecture_confidence": 79.627, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.12, "rotation_up": 8.95, "upward_expansion": 16.29, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 78.04, "downward_expansion": 94.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.106, 53.670777, 53.998725, 54.261056 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 53.08, "trend_reference": 54.613486, "distance_from_trend": -0.028079, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 53.623255, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010131, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.476272, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.036341, "excess_performance": -0.223795, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028079, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006543, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010131, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026578, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012773, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036341, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.356745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11759823, "relative_activity": 1.22696, "balance": 1.356745, "dry_up": 1.050612, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018142, "annualized_volatility": 0.092216, "from_high_reference": -0.06929, "from_low_reference": 0.013904 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.613486, "fair_value_reference": 53.623255, "structural_low": 52.352118, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.011522, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.001902, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.129048, "worst_return": -0.090215, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008215, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.037917, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.11058, "worst_return": -0.161811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.045598, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.055454, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.023896, "worst_return": -0.159963, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 54.750878, "fair_value": 53.624919, "relative_strength": -11.421632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.377653, "energy": 58.494141, "activity_lines": [ 53.805534, 54.179314, 54.286824, 54.505953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.556288, "volume": 10165607, "typical_volume": 10291908.85, "trend": 54.681304, "fair_value": 53.620531, "relative_strength": -12.439434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.970529, "energy": 75.214115, "activity_lines": [ 53.270052, 53.866905, 54.112875, 54.364366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.08, "volume": 11759823, "typical_volume": 9584520.1, "trend": 54.613486, "fair_value": 53.623255, "relative_strength": -15.476272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.76331, "energy": 72.377109, "activity_lines": [ 53.106, 53.670777, 53.998725, 54.261056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }