{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e3ef726-2f73-48c4-8f58-d888c09e875e", "symbol": "688178", "name": "Nanjing Wondux Environmental Protection Technology Corp., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.317, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.047, "architecture_energy": 63.049, "architecture_maturity": 11.677, "architecture_confidence": 76.069, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.32, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 28.83, "deceleration": 49.28, "rotation_down": 70.95, "downward_expansion": 56.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.664, 28.778364, 31.747762, 31.514301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.469999, "trend_reference": 30.386, "distance_from_trend": -0.095965, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.790833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.388016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.803494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112146, "excess_performance": 0.155349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095965, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072308, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.388016, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.758911, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.422084, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112146, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.548728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8891203, "relative_activity": 0.930916, "balance": 0.548728, "dry_up": 1.113806, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162415, "annualized_volatility": 0.626367, "from_high_reference": -0.339663, "from_low_reference": 0.417441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.386, "fair_value_reference": 19.790833, "structural_low": 19.379999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.027218, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027882, "worst_return": 0.026553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.168449, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.178958, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.346234, "worst_return": -0.009335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.175394, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.20526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.342905, "worst_return": 0.007884, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.344041, 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"2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159443, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.457508, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086142, "active": false }, { 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -16.528738, "energy": 26.851843, "activity_lines": [ 31.087334, 33.530001, 34.08262, 32.587226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.08, "volume": 14357114, "typical_volume": 9542176.75, "trend": 30.301667, "fair_value": 19.707646, "relative_strength": -15.610476, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.155706, "energy": 54.813768, "activity_lines": [ 27.840667, 31.42, 33.129477, 32.118366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.74, "volume": 9037649, "typical_volume": 9551617.1, "trend": 30.271334, "fair_value": 19.737285, "relative_strength": -13.549116, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.044585, "energy": 64.833643, "activity_lines": [ 25.81, 29.665455, 32.25481, 31.695033 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.469999, "volume": 8891203, "typical_volume": 9551024.1, "trend": 30.386, "fair_value": 19.790833, "relative_strength": -2.803494, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.047349, "energy": 63.049495, "activity_lines": [ 25.664, 28.778364, 31.747762, 31.514301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }