{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e41f76a-32ab-4e7f-8d82-51e1aed941e8", "symbol": "ARTE", "name": "Artea SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.158, "architecture_energy": 67.062, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 29.59, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.82, "rotation_down": 55.92, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.446667, 5.476364, 5.908571, 6.353011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.4, "trend_reference": 7.025, "distance_from_trend": -0.231317, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.833654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.501553, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.886721, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.403315, "excess_performance": -0.456626, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13503, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.501553, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100012, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.378867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.403315, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.052875, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 179, "relative_activity": 1.205793, "balance": 0.052875, "dry_up": 0.693836, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052707, "annualized_volatility": 0.316478, "from_high_reference": -0.538462, "from_low_reference": 0.028571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.025, "fair_value_reference": 10.833654, "structural_low": 5.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.009091, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.020559, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.27907, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.058477, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.108389, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.325581, "worst_return": -0.28125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.184713, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.119438, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.14433, "worst_return": -0.262614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046296, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", 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7.556667, "fair_value": 11.320833, "relative_strength": -39.922755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.587216, "energy": 88.818424, "activity_lines": [ 5.5, 5.921818, 6.47881, 6.951935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.65, "volume": 79, "typical_volume": 219.1, "trend": 7.448333, "fair_value": 11.222436, "relative_strength": -36.070311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.139027, "energy": 85.502885, "activity_lines": [ 5.54, 5.8, 6.357857, 6.828925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.45, "volume": 145, "typical_volume": 175.75, "trend": 7.331667, "fair_value": 11.124038, "relative_strength": -37.360475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.748097, "energy": 69.52217, "activity_lines": [ 5.523333, 5.674545, 6.229762, 6.7 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.45, "volume": 64, "typical_volume": 160.55, "trend": 7.225, "fair_value": 11.028205, "relative_strength": -36.58145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.942637, "energy": 68.203248, "activity_lines": [ 5.503333, 5.581818, 6.11381, 6.578602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.45, "volume": 24, "typical_volume": 147.3, "trend": 7.121667, "fair_value": 10.928526, "relative_strength": -36.666862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.491744, "energy": 67.708752, "activity_lines": [ 5.48, 5.519091, 6.008095, 6.464086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.4, "volume": 179, "typical_volume": 148.45, "trend": 7.025, "fair_value": 10.833654, "relative_strength": -37.886721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.157559, "energy": 67.062006, "activity_lines": [ 5.446667, 5.476364, 5.908571, 6.353011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }