{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e43f309-0a0d-4f50-b027-327cbb9f9a0d", "symbol": "IPWR", "name": "Ideal Power Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.062, "architecture_energy": 19.872, "architecture_maturity": 32.881, "architecture_confidence": 61.924, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.45, "rotation_up": 15.71, "upward_expansion": 14.53, "deceleration": 61.88, "rotation_down": 56.88, "downward_expansion": 41.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.139333, 4.517455, 4.868762, 4.620452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.52, "trend_reference": 4.342, "distance_from_trend": 0.040995, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.391649, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292827, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.326244, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.127182, "excess_performance": -0.060272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040995, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096834, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292827, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070466, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113262, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127182, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.635062, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 661453, "relative_activity": 0.262893, "balance": 1.635062, "dry_up": 0.292743, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.34805, "annualized_volatility": 1.063969, "from_high_reference": -0.513978, "from_low_reference": 0.728489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.342, "fair_value_reference": 6.391649, "structural_low": 2.615, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030144, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.092673, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.271186, "worst_return": -0.265873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.057424, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.062652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151545, "worst_return": -0.036697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.059261, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15653, "worst_return": -0.038008, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.170581, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046828, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163724, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210386, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.094991, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.266145, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063725, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.310484, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103175, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.59, "volume": 47007, "typical_volume": 69374.4, "trend": 11.135877, "fair_value": 11.352958, "relative_strength": -20.296862, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"relative_strength": -18.27396, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.907813, "energy": 15.959601, "activity_lines": [ 4.676667, 5.254909, 5.012571, 4.663849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.98, "volume": 468329, "typical_volume": 2474834.9, "trend": 4.294667, "fair_value": 6.490046, "relative_strength": -18.234175, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.874023, "energy": 14.355644, "activity_lines": [ 4.345333, 4.955091, 4.959238, 4.64514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.7, "volume": 684471, "typical_volume": 2491306.9, "trend": 4.308, "fair_value": 6.434469, "relative_strength": -23.890385, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.966148, "energy": 23.974095, "activity_lines": [ 4.058, 4.643273, 4.876238, 4.606774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.52, "volume": 661453, "typical_volume": 2516058.2, "trend": 4.342, "fair_value": 6.391649, "relative_strength": -11.326244, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.061885, "energy": 19.872423, "activity_lines": [ 4.139333, 4.517455, 4.868762, 4.620452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }