{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e46c0da-d1c9-4d89-b175-1143e056abb3", "symbol": "ITAMID", "name": "Amundi FTSE Italia PMI PIR 2020 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.651, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.59, "architecture_energy": 37.562, "architecture_maturity": 56.83, "architecture_confidence": 76.994, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.21, "rotation_up": 36.58, "upward_expansion": 65.11, "deceleration": 87.83, "rotation_down": 27.32, "downward_expansion": 17.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 251.36, 252.139093, 248.142621, 242.458281 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 255.800003, "trend_reference": 237.740001, "distance_from_trend": 0.075965, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 196.301245, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303099, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.809228, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077733, "excess_performance": -0.093158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075965, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032343, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303099, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046077, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058092, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011734, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077733, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.380458, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6859, "relative_activity": 0.744597, "balance": 1.380458, "dry_up": 1.246458, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029726, "annualized_volatility": 0.21025, "from_high_reference": -0.018042, "from_low_reference": 0.294797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 237.740001, "fair_value_reference": 196.301245, "structural_low": 197.559998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022458, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003205, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137882, "worst_return": -0.119356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025504, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192641, "worst_return": -0.018468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033922, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038384, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.220841, "worst_return": -0.094864, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"fair_value": 195.056309, "relative_strength": -5.521907, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.2345, "energy": 45.220161, "activity_lines": [ 251.506669, 252.000913, 245.520717, 240.553873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 247.649994, "volume": 17420, "typical_volume": 9351.65, "trend": 237.218334, "fair_value": 195.650861, "relative_strength": -6.295565, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.346481, "energy": 31.808499, "activity_lines": [ 250.036666, 251.352729, 246.525478, 241.259464 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 255.800003, "volume": 6859, "typical_volume": 9211.7, "trend": 237.740001, "fair_value": 196.301245, "relative_strength": -5.809228, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.589867, "energy": 37.562372, "activity_lines": [ 251.36, 252.139093, 248.142621, 242.458281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }