{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e47cb70-3179-4fdc-99c4-67283da4a0bf", "symbol": "COI", "name": "Comet Ridge Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.721, "architecture_energy": 73.401, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.088, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.98, "rotation_up": 16.64, "upward_expansion": 16.05, "deceleration": 42.24, "rotation_down": 70.01, "downward_expansion": 91.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.088133, 0.093945, 0.111533, 0.120284 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.086, "trend_reference": 0.128933, "distance_from_trend": -0.332989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.152849, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.437355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.606567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.338462, "excess_performance": -0.402167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.332989, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.437355, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.346066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.436592, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.92354, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12686706, "relative_activity": 1.531204, "balance": 0.92354, "dry_up": 2.222197, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177996, "annualized_volatility": 0.550948, "from_high_reference": -0.508571, "from_low_reference": 0.061728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.128933, "fair_value_reference": 0.152849, "structural_low": 0.081, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.011364, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031378, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.227273, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.09375, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.078812, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.157895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066092, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.061903, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.206897, "worst_return": -0.236842, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.093467, 0.107309, 0.12339, 0.128773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.092, "volume": 13671281, "typical_volume": 7491336.7, "trend": 0.13225, "fair_value": 0.15392, "relative_strength": -27.468493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.420593, "energy": 86.235042, "activity_lines": [ 0.090933, 0.102709, 0.119519, 0.126084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.087, "volume": 16580705, "typical_volume": 8069188.3, "trend": 0.13065, "fair_value": 0.153388, "relative_strength": -32.338704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.221292, "energy": 83.074117, "activity_lines": [ 0.089267, 0.097982, 0.115424, 0.123165 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.086, "volume": 12686706, "typical_volume": 8285446.15, "trend": 0.128933, "fair_value": 0.152849, "relative_strength": -34.606567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.720934, "energy": 73.400969, "activity_lines": [ 0.088133, 0.093945, 0.111533, 0.120284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }