{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e4b39e7-cf53-40fe-b20c-8af81a328771", "symbol": "IIF", "name": "Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.77, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.466, "architecture_energy": 29.202, "architecture_maturity": 8.902, "architecture_confidence": 50.813, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.38, "rotation_up": 56.76, "upward_expansion": 51.58, "deceleration": 32.26, "rotation_down": 23.08, "downward_expansion": 9.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.965333, 22.808364, 22.448048, 22.366903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.35, "trend_reference": 22.532667, "distance_from_trend": 0.036273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.088591, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057107, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.967094, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040279, "excess_performance": -0.165904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036273, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034371, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057107, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013856, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119671, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061952, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040279, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.542889, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165305, "relative_activity": 0.980278, "balance": 2.542889, "dry_up": 0.975833, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039476, "annualized_volatility": 0.231279, "from_high_reference": -0.101578, "from_low_reference": 0.177509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.532667, "fair_value_reference": 22.088591, "structural_low": 19.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035072, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.004897, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.066562, "worst_return": -0.0751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04581, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021767, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080077, "worst_return": -0.033078, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04816, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00024, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107091, "worst_return": -0.026512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012826, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022699, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002203, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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22.310174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.9, "volume": 74041, "typical_volume": 192752.55, "trend": 22.885408, "fair_value": 21.876876, "relative_strength": -12.864483, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.363933, "energy": 12.093863, "activity_lines": [ 22.465333, 22.158727, 22.012476, 22.307188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.96, "volume": 185018, "typical_volume": 194755.5, "trend": 22.824667, "fair_value": 21.920012, "relative_strength": -13.27542, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.085402, "energy": 18.9987, "activity_lines": [ 22.728667, 22.328182, 22.095476, 22.312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.05, "volume": 191479, "typical_volume": 192202.95, "trend": 22.742333, "fair_value": 21.962972, "relative_strength": -11.083277, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.236682, "energy": 42.339864, "activity_lines": [ 22.898667, 22.494727, 22.194571, 22.326538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.29, "volume": 115845, "typical_volume": 179531.9, "trend": 22.647667, "fair_value": 22.000307, "relative_strength": -13.014853, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.405297, "energy": 31.251398, "activity_lines": [ 22.736, 22.512545, 22.225095, 22.297355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.95, "volume": 185593, "typical_volume": 174152.4, "trend": 22.574333, "fair_value": 22.04272, "relative_strength": -10.892995, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.371843, "energy": 28.453092, "activity_lines": [ 22.792, 22.635636, 22.320905, 22.31686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.35, "volume": 165305, "typical_volume": 168630.8, "trend": 22.532667, "fair_value": 22.088591, "relative_strength": -11.967094, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.465683, "energy": 29.201524, "activity_lines": [ 22.965333, 22.808364, 22.448048, 22.366903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }