{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e4c2102-f7dd-408c-9580-01ed2d100ce8", "symbol": "RDS", "name": "Redstone Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.885, "architecture_energy": 19.26, "architecture_maturity": 61.862, "architecture_confidence": 90.411, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.37, "rotation_up": 20.95, "upward_expansion": 3.19, "deceleration": 46.63, "rotation_down": 47.44, "downward_expansion": 76.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003067, 0.0031, 0.003133, 0.003157 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.003217, "distance_from_trend": -0.067358, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.004112, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.27046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.630611, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021164, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.27046, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059053, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022176, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.504793, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5670000, "relative_activity": 1.304408, "balance": 1.504793, "dry_up": 1.69826, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192308, "annualized_volatility": 1.141367, "from_high_reference": -0.571429, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003217, "fair_value_reference": 0.004112, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.076923, "positive_rate": 0.217391, "directional_follow_through": 0.217391, "median_excess_return": -0.068683, "regime_survival": 0.521739, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.090909, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": -0.234294, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.275, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.236427, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.466667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"direction": -46.619458, "energy": 21.773923, "activity_lines": [ 0.0031, 0.003136, 0.003148, 0.003178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0035, "volume": 7721404, "typical_volume": 4703735.2, "trend": 0.003217, "fair_value": 0.004183, "relative_strength": 0.547824, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.048795, "energy": 7.466738, "activity_lines": [ 0.003233, 0.003191, 0.003179, 0.003199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 3092496, "typical_volume": 4793276.6, "trend": 0.003217, "fair_value": 0.004157, "relative_strength": -13.071419, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.875271, "energy": 20.201178, "activity_lines": [ 0.003133, 0.003145, 0.003162, 0.003185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 13044096, "typical_volume": 4855218.7, "trend": 0.003217, "fair_value": 0.004138, "relative_strength": -14.518587, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.051045, "energy": 20.093862, "activity_lines": [ 0.0031, 0.003118, 0.003148, 0.003171 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 5670000, "typical_volume": 4346800.65, "trend": 0.003217, "fair_value": 0.004112, "relative_strength": -16.630611, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.885226, "energy": 19.260025, "activity_lines": [ 0.003067, 0.0031, 0.003133, 0.003157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }