{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e5391ca-5dda-4ea2-aad0-be813344998a", "symbol": "FSV", "name": "FirstService Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.635, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.176, "architecture_energy": 8.999, "architecture_maturity": 16.162, "architecture_confidence": 55.641, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.13, "rotation_up": 30.86, "upward_expansion": 25.31, "deceleration": 27.42, "rotation_down": 27.72, "downward_expansion": 52.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.39, 142.483773, 140.628145, 141.348292 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 143.91, "trend_reference": 144.264148, "distance_from_trend": -0.002455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 162.835392, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.116224, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.281453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.103073, "excess_performance": -0.290526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002455, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027772, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.116224, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062775, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131319, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103073, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.79607, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 669755, "relative_activity": 0.65819, "balance": 2.79607, "dry_up": 1.037891, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07204, "annualized_volatility": 0.296598, "from_high_reference": -0.309885, "from_low_reference": 0.207762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 144.264148, "fair_value_reference": 162.835392, "structural_low": 119.154268, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.002638, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002411, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.151939, "worst_return": -0.113301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055994, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.029551, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.146319, "worst_return": -0.303857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000765, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11389, "worst_return": -0.371272, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027528, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021933, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049788, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015775, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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142.208087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.46, "volume": 1434238, "typical_volume": 999562.05, "trend": 145.096814, "fair_value": 162.955243, "relative_strength": -21.308154, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.966366, "energy": 12.878099, "activity_lines": [ 142.898557, 141.8531, 140.082938, 141.675259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 140.89, "volume": 1590188, "typical_volume": 1025493.05, "trend": 144.771171, "fair_value": 162.889229, "relative_strength": -18.880331, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.269506, "energy": 7.954552, "activity_lines": [ 142.152333, 141.980363, 140.211635, 141.403852 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 143.91, "volume": 669755, "typical_volume": 1017570.15, "trend": 144.264148, "fair_value": 162.835392, "relative_strength": -20.281453, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.176321, "energy": 8.99892, "activity_lines": [ 142.39, 142.483773, 140.628145, 141.348292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }