{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e54a178-f146-4677-b3cd-5d417d21e403", "symbol": "PXA", "name": "PEXA Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.369, "architecture_energy": 86.864, "architecture_maturity": 54.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.663, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 12.24, "upward_expansion": 21.25, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 77.06, "downward_expansion": 96.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.613333, 8.286545, 9.603476, 10.686946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.81, "trend_reference": 11.965, "distance_from_trend": -0.347263, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.869103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.39312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.009964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.431587, "excess_performance": -0.495292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.347263, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.39312, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.368647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.4401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.343444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.431587, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.376101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3161065, "relative_activity": 1.163723, "balance": 0.376101, "dry_up": 1.366945, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110066, "annualized_volatility": 0.539859, "from_high_reference": -0.545402, "from_low_reference": 0.092308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.965, "fair_value_reference": 12.869103, "structural_low": 7.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.001513, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.002246, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.164655, "worst_return": -0.235849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032494, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.024712, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.206924, "worst_return": -0.373513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006567, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.11487, "worst_return": -0.436519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065071, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.025307, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030008, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014781, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085062, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02895, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.38065, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.98, "volume": 2293002, "typical_volume": 2288322.4, "trend": 13.021, "fair_value": 15.072768, "relative_strength": -3.27392, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"typical_volume": 2237666.05, "trend": 12.953, "fair_value": 13.040128, "relative_strength": -39.029076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.271021, "energy": 93.844955, "activity_lines": [ 9.964, 10.581273, 11.580048, 12.257312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.1, "volume": 6130627, "typical_volume": 2468212.1, "trend": 12.756667, "fair_value": 13.005833, "relative_strength": -41.500338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.626727, "energy": 95.028397, "activity_lines": [ 9.235333, 10.028182, 11.155476, 11.944215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.9, "volume": 4586560, "typical_volume": 2595223.65, "trend": 12.560333, "fair_value": 12.974551, "relative_strength": -42.496113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.070807, "energy": 94.721707, "activity_lines": [ 8.617333, 9.518182, 10.743048, 11.630882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.19, "volume": 3639592, "typical_volume": 2688319.05, "trend": 12.345, "fair_value": 12.936987, "relative_strength": -46.880402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.525676, "energy": 95.061326, "activity_lines": [ 7.942667, 8.968909, 10.296714, 11.284409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.42, "volume": 3465124, "typical_volume": 2688703.9, "trend": 12.145667, "fair_value": 12.902179, "relative_strength": -45.761155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.349477, "energy": 90.98216, "activity_lines": [ 7.62, 8.552909, 9.913857, 10.966667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.81, "volume": 3161065, "typical_volume": 2716337.95, "trend": 11.965, "fair_value": 12.869103, "relative_strength": -44.009964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.369028, "energy": 86.864026, "activity_lines": [ 7.613333, 8.286545, 9.603476, 10.686946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }