{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e5e7f7e-ac11-4773-82e4-da9a77d2a43c", "symbol": "BAJAJCON", "name": "Bajaj Consumer Care Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.889, "architecture_energy": 29.222, "architecture_maturity": 69.052, "architecture_confidence": 90.51, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.88, "rotation_up": 24.55, "upward_expansion": 58.35, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 36.71, "downward_expansion": 19.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 543.639998, 567.213639, 556.760003, 520.083121 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 537.450012, "trend_reference": 467.085003, "distance_from_trend": 0.150647, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 272.141342, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.974893, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 41.936885, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.494162, "excess_performance": 0.537871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.150647, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.281856, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.974893, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.419369, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.550982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.494162, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3273405, "relative_activity": 0.637838, "balance": 0.633133, "dry_up": 1.152406, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102063, "annualized_volatility": 0.628129, "from_high_reference": -0.223338, "from_low_reference": 1.441845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 467.085003, "fair_value_reference": 272.141342, "structural_low": 320.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015541, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.004453, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.288555, "worst_return": -0.058236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.10325, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.037325, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.70953, "worst_return": -0.017915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010125, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.685436, "worst_return": -0.025962, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132896, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058131, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089881, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", 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263.941998, "relative_strength": 91.757698, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.977804, "energy": 71.686364, "activity_lines": [ 626.236674, 602.007278, 544.863099, 497.047853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 525.650024, "volume": 14295493, "typical_volume": 5060595.15, "trend": 440.318337, "fair_value": 265.999739, "relative_strength": 47.253067, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.322869, "energy": 50.781657, "activity_lines": [ 596.000012, 591.360009, 548.13453, 503.138607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 549.799988, "volume": 4156991, "typical_volume": 5169936.35, "trend": 449.91667, "fair_value": 268.219701, "relative_strength": 54.910094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.577462, "energy": 39.084901, "activity_lines": [ 578.213338, 585.478187, 553.08429, 510.201939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 524.099976, "volume": 1930853, "typical_volume": 5146703.05, "trend": 458.475002, "fair_value": 270.150376, "relative_strength": 41.684464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.751942, "energy": 24.131028, "activity_lines": [ 556.889994, 574.699091, 554.738811, 514.987959 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 537.450012, "volume": 3273405, "typical_volume": 5132033.3, "trend": 467.085003, "fair_value": 272.141342, "relative_strength": 41.936885, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.88895, "energy": 29.222204, "activity_lines": [ 543.639998, 567.213639, 556.760003, 520.083121 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }