{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e652120-9862-48b3-a32d-613d57baf6ab", "symbol": "600673", "name": "Guangdong HEC Technology Holding Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.811, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.103, "architecture_energy": 36.979, "architecture_maturity": 3.096, "architecture_confidence": 48.306, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.76, "rotation_up": 22.7, "upward_expansion": 18.4, "deceleration": 42.53, "rotation_down": 57.71, "downward_expansion": 50.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.040667, 32.479091, 33.68919, 33.768301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.91, "trend_reference": 33.367333, "distance_from_trend": -0.013706, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.055046, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.185978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.459811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.20815, "excess_performance": 0.251354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013706, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131838, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.185978, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.92999, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.174598, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.461798, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.20815, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.883419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263241982, "relative_activity": 0.921818, "balance": 0.883419, "dry_up": 0.996468, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145338, "annualized_volatility": 0.695271, "from_high_reference": -0.231613, "from_low_reference": 1.354077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.367333, "fair_value_reference": 15.055046, "structural_low": 25.610001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014283, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.004829, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.122117, "worst_return": -0.122128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.114655, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.011871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.41433, "worst_return": -0.153324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.518821, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.494491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.19107, "worst_return": -0.139618, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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[ 34.882666, 35.241635, 34.912857, 33.955612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.150002, "volume": 384180922, "typical_volume": 280658052.0, "trend": 32.265333, "fair_value": 14.444731, "relative_strength": 36.704963, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.178755, "energy": 28.786459, "activity_lines": [ 35.838, 35.493818, 35.127047, 34.306365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.77, "volume": 348947284, "typical_volume": 298105416.2, "trend": 32.589333, "fair_value": 14.610501, "relative_strength": 26.27632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.560209, "energy": 11.653822, "activity_lines": [ 35.068, 34.917818, 34.92719, 34.338924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.309999, "volume": 292025099, "typical_volume": 312706671.15, "trend": 32.817333, "fair_value": 14.747436, "relative_strength": 6.659333, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.91861, "energy": 15.995077, "activity_lines": [ 32.724, 33.660545, 34.326523, 34.062838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.360001, "volume": 234024207, "typical_volume": 290523978.5, "trend": 33.018, "fair_value": 14.885798, "relative_strength": 5.293551, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.128572, "energy": 36.70781, "activity_lines": [ 30.926667, 32.561454, 33.775809, 33.775269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.91, "volume": 263241982, "typical_volume": 285568388.15, "trend": 33.367333, "fair_value": 15.055046, "relative_strength": 17.459811, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.103115, "energy": 36.978836, "activity_lines": [ 31.040667, 32.479091, 33.68919, 33.768301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }