{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e75147b-4e3f-4222-8ad8-587dc9276d30", "symbol": "FDX", "name": "FedEx Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.379, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.989, "architecture_energy": 53.337, "architecture_maturity": 12.223, "architecture_confidence": 88.318, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.4, "rotation_up": 21.77, "upward_expansion": 10.17, "deceleration": 46.15, "rotation_down": 52.45, "downward_expansion": 81.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 274.179997, 276.380332, 288.801679, 295.879161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 274.5, "trend_reference": 299.782747, "distance_from_trend": -0.084337, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 239.969684, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.690738, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102935, "excess_performance": -0.277182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084337, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045308, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143894, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231136, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102935, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051917, "annualized_volatility": 0.333561, "from_high_reference": -0.193213, "from_low_reference": 0.46185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 299.782747, "fair_value_reference": 239.969684, "structural_low": 265.399994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.048369, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.016431, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.168177, "worst_return": -0.125628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.092875, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.071529, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.204451, "worst_return": -0.074803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.077753, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.131035, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.315851, "worst_return": -0.223817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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307.980659, 312.694436, 305.665127 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 283.980011, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31.8, "trend": 292.692586, "fair_value": 237.509918, "relative_strength": -10.159667, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.625538, "energy": 42.931269, "activity_lines": [ 289.481494, 302.309057, 309.961468, 305.215586 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 283.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31.8, "trend": 294.281069, "fair_value": 237.962126, "relative_strength": -8.656108, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.866163, "energy": 60.21389, "activity_lines": [ 285.173417, 297.228724, 307.101786, 304.622516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 273.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27.9, "trend": 295.582234, "fair_value": 238.331993, "relative_strength": -14.043632, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.161205, "energy": 64.771922, "activity_lines": [ 281.147894, 291.05021, 303.349237, 303.249544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 274.5, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 24.7, "trend": 296.661231, "fair_value": 238.711474, "relative_strength": -12.427024, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.783576, "energy": 66.128243, "activity_lines": [ 278.234119, 286.167794, 299.935553, 301.889399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 277.899994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.2, "trend": 297.822034, "fair_value": 239.073662, "relative_strength": -9.716986, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.740685, "energy": 59.9327, "activity_lines": [ 277.165332, 282.966641, 297.084798, 300.678997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 279.299988, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.2, "trend": 298.856933, "fair_value": 239.393708, "relative_strength": -10.518876, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.426269, "energy": 49.372699, "activity_lines": [ 277.406661, 280.805859, 294.617329, 299.484026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 268.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.35, "trend": 299.518484, "fair_value": 239.665373, "relative_strength": -14.168208, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.164648, "energy": 60.19616, "activity_lines": [ 274.193329, 277.345475, 291.30629, 297.493256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 274.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6.15, "trend": 299.782747, "fair_value": 239.969684, "relative_strength": -14.690738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.989102, "energy": 53.33712, "activity_lines": [ 274.179997, 276.380332, 288.801679, 295.879161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }