{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e7837fd-4cf9-4b4e-a2ea-4fa61878b722", "symbol": "FNTL", "name": "Fintel Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 62.94, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.193, "architecture_energy": 27.456, "architecture_maturity": 6.553, "architecture_confidence": 45.422, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.62, "rotation_up": 46.5, "upward_expansion": 38.74, "deceleration": 29.26, "rotation_down": 14.53, "downward_expansion": 44.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.333333, 188.536364, 184.749492, 186.646447 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 194.0, "trend_reference": 195.349155, "distance_from_trend": -0.006906, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 243.099872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201974, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.428079, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.245032, "excess_performance": -0.296268, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006906, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201974, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107225, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134281, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160167, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.245032, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.57411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 970410, "relative_activity": 1.26617, "balance": 1.57411, "dry_up": 0.890734, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065396, "annualized_volatility": 0.430004, "from_high_reference": -0.294449, "from_low_reference": 0.228017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 195.349155, "fair_value_reference": 243.099872, "structural_low": 157.978287, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.01777, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.010186, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.115, "worst_return": -0.207143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.058769, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.02542, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.245, "worst_return": -0.123596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011067, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.072316, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.525, "worst_return": -0.269623, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 183.0, "volume": 354585, "typical_volume": 809500.1, "trend": 197.495292, "fair_value": 243.507626, "relative_strength": -17.887458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.124825, "energy": 34.320892, "activity_lines": [ 178.2, 178.824627, 179.5155, 187.145605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 190.0, "volume": 351901, "typical_volume": 802980.5, "trend": 196.829587, "fair_value": 243.40247, "relative_strength": -14.822565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.251763, "energy": 11.586231, "activity_lines": [ 182.566667, 180.971389, 180.278963, 186.662038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 198.0, "volume": 756411, "typical_volume": 803612.25, "trend": 196.463877, "fair_value": 243.310152, "relative_strength": -11.715284, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.023641, "energy": 18.908271, "activity_lines": [ 189.0, 184.190457, 181.93276, 186.737548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 197.0, "volume": 651960, "typical_volume": 775073.05, "trend": 195.948184, "fair_value": 243.230645, "relative_strength": -12.475804, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.016937, "energy": 23.024686, "activity_lines": [ 193.233333, 186.781818, 183.495951, 186.772137 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 194.0, "volume": 970410, "typical_volume": 766413.75, "trend": 195.349155, "fair_value": 243.099872, "relative_strength": -13.428079, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.192753, "energy": 27.455572, "activity_lines": [ 194.333333, 188.536364, 184.749492, 186.646447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }