{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e7cf497-e8fb-443e-b08c-7ffcb3c2daf2", "symbol": "EBS", "name": "Emergent Biosolutions Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -93.166, "architecture_energy": 87.194, "architecture_maturity": 56.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.455, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.08, "rotation_up": 8.7, "upward_expansion": 18.09, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 86.58, "downward_expansion": 96.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.544667, 7.225455, 7.767381, 8.05972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.84, "trend_reference": 8.676667, "distance_from_trend": -0.442182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.025641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.311095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.867855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.556777, "excess_performance": -0.682401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.442182, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130042, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.311095, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.666327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.538679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.479451, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.556777, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455396, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9059134, "relative_activity": 2.263566, "balance": 0.455396, "dry_up": 1.163146, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206373, "annualized_volatility": 0.813532, "from_high_reference": -0.655761, "from_low_reference": 0.006237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.676667, "fair_value_reference": 7.025641, "structural_low": 4.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.075067, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.086091, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.702532, "worst_return": -0.330383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.190728, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.138402, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.362661, "worst_return": -0.575284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.309348, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.266496, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 2.604545, "worst_return": -0.6875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138664, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.252, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008666, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.422747, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3712, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061086, "active": false 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"gate": "down", "direction": -54.408879, "energy": 29.937516, "activity_lines": [ 8.218667, 8.304364, 8.348762, 8.696667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.63, "volume": 4193349, "typical_volume": 4112297.1, "trend": 9.296, "fair_value": 7.027244, "relative_strength": -25.231269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.530696, "energy": 34.330283, "activity_lines": [ 8.016667, 8.159636, 8.283095, 8.578882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.26, "volume": 2625136, "typical_volume": 3841549.2, "trend": 9.123667, "fair_value": 7.030321, "relative_strength": -28.281179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.701998, "energy": 50.744722, "activity_lines": [ 7.737333, 7.981636, 8.184667, 8.447527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.22, "volume": 2742726, "typical_volume": 3778581.0, "trend": 8.947333, "fair_value": 7.029744, "relative_strength": -29.500088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.479113, "energy": 63.516826, "activity_lines": [ 7.494, 7.808727, 8.087333, 8.32471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.84, "volume": 9059134, "typical_volume": 4002151.0, "trend": 8.676667, "fair_value": 7.025641, "relative_strength": -53.867855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.166439, "energy": 87.193901, "activity_lines": [ 6.544667, 7.225455, 7.767381, 8.05972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }