{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8e813261-01fc-4807-98d6-d3636c7a66eb", "symbol": "601512", "name": "China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park Development Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.179, "architecture_energy": 43.646, "architecture_maturity": 32.905, "architecture_confidence": 95.923, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.28, "rotation_up": 24.7, "upward_expansion": 7.01, "deceleration": 47.8, "rotation_down": 43.75, "downward_expansion": 75.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.781333, 7.796664, 8.224277, 8.500817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.85, "trend_reference": 8.865106, "distance_from_trend": -0.114506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.043051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024002, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.442373, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.194045, "excess_performance": -0.150841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045428, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024002, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338162, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230116, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194045, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.237697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16932100, "relative_activity": 0.466433, "balance": 0.237697, "dry_up": 0.465339, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080218, "annualized_volatility": 0.37561, "from_high_reference": -0.312007, "from_low_reference": 0.065129 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.865106, "fair_value_reference": 8.043051, "structural_low": 7.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.018428, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003085, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.20362, "worst_return": -0.057176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.062821, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00671, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.274194, "worst_return": -0.102941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040915, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043708, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.290852, "worst_return": -0.033843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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68.99244, "activity_lines": [ 7.849768, 8.244952, 8.696686, 8.888206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.93, "volume": 11365000, "typical_volume": 36418270.15, "trend": 9.009772, "fair_value": 8.074065, "relative_strength": -12.338699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.573478, "energy": 60.111492, "activity_lines": [ 7.838224, 8.106349, 8.600861, 8.815919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.71, "volume": 15753629, "typical_volume": 36344536.6, "trend": 8.976772, "fair_value": 8.068716, "relative_strength": -9.447301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.780443, "energy": 50.749763, "activity_lines": [ 7.788622, 7.966473, 8.491608, 8.732063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.4, "volume": 16779549, "typical_volume": 36144203.15, "trend": 8.934106, "fair_value": 8.059912, "relative_strength": -13.9755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.328464, "energy": 57.905379, "activity_lines": [ 7.659022, 7.823507, 8.361831, 8.630336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.98, "volume": 18104297, "typical_volume": 36221968.0, "trend": 8.903439, "fair_value": 8.052202, "relative_strength": -7.587676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.605239, "energy": 42.806072, "activity_lines": [ 7.756374, 7.815631, 8.296149, 8.568781 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.85, "volume": 16932100, "typical_volume": 36301268.05, "trend": 8.865106, "fair_value": 8.043051, "relative_strength": -11.442373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.178843, "energy": 43.646322, "activity_lines": [ 7.781333, 7.796664, 8.224277, 8.500817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }